By Professor John Robertson, OBA

From the CND, yesterday:

Radioactive air emissions have been increasing year-on-year at Coulport one of Britain’s nuclear submarine bases in Scotland. This development is of some concern as it would lead to increased health risks wherever the emissions were inhaled. 

Investigations by The Ferret and The National newspaper found that emissions of radioactive tritiated water vapour had doubled at the Royal Navy’s nuclear weapons storage depot at Coulport on Loch Long between 2018 and 2023. According to the Scottish Pollution Release Inventory, tritiated water vapour emissions at Coulport were 1.7 billion becquerels (units of radioactivity) in 2018, rising steadily to 4.2 billion units in 2023. Tritiated water vapour is  harmful when inhaled, ingested or absorbed through the skin as its radiation causes cancer and cardiovascular diseases including strokes.

The investigation also found that eight miles from Coulport at Faslane, where Britain’s nuclear submarines are based, tritiated water containing over 50 billion units of radioactivity had been dumped into the Gareloch. The level of dumping peaked in 2020, when 16.6 billion units were discharged. 

The Ferret noted that in 2019,  the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) “changed the rules to allow certain tritium-contaminated effluents from nuclear submarines at Faslane to be discharged into the Gareloch.” Both SEPA and the MoD claim these emissions are within official safety limits.

However Dr Ian Fairlie, CND’s science advisor, states that these limits are unreliable, as official estimated doses from tritium contain “large uncertainties.”

CND General Secretary Sophie Bolt said: 

“From faulty nuclear-armed subs on dangerously extended patrols to crumbling nuclear waste sites, Britain’s nuclear industry is putting us all at great risk. Instead of enforcing the highest levels of environmental standards, the government is just redefining what ‘acceptable risk’ means. All so it can allow the dumping of radioactive water, putting local people at greater risk of cancer. This is beyond reckless. It’s time to scrap Trident and its replacement, and decommission the nuclear industry.”

_{^{https://cnduk.org/radioactive-pollution-is-increasing-at-britains-nuclear-bases/}}

At the same time Cancer incidence in the under-50s has dramatically increased.

From the Health Foundation in September 2024:

Growing numbers of adults under 50 years [more likely to be exposed at work, in education or outdoor recreation including swimming than over 50s] are experiencing a cancer diagnosis (often known as early or young-onset cancer).

This is a developing field, but evidence is mounting that rates of young-onset cancer incidence are increasing, particularly in high-income countries in the global north. A study looking at global trends focusing on 29 types of cancer in people aged 14–49 years, found incidence of these cancers increased by around 79% between 1990 and 2019, with around 3.3 million cases globally in 2019 and countries in more economically developed regions particularly affected. 

In the UK, cancer incidence rates among people aged 25–49 years increased by roughly 22% between 1993–95 and 2016–18 (while incidence rates among those aged 75 years and older increased by around 9%).

_{https://www.health.org.uk/news-and-comment/blogs/rising-cancer-incidence-in-younger-adults-what-is-going-on} 

Scottish Labour is, of course, committed to the Trident programme.

No doubt, someone will blame the locals for smoking-induced lung cancer but but smoking rates have been in steep decline for decades:

Smoking prevalence is similar in males and females, with a decline observed in both sexes over time; from 2003 to 2021, prevalence fell from 28% to 11% in females and from 29% to 12% in males.

^{https://www.publichealthscotland.scot/publications/cancer-incidence-in-scotland/cancer-incidence-in-scotland-to-december-2021/}

The big C Cancer is the main risk from humans ingesting tritium.

Finally on the tritium now being dumped in the Clyde in billions of units. From Scientific American in 2014:

The big C Cancer is the main risk from humans ingesting tritium. When tritium decays it spits out a low-energy electron (roughly 18,000 electron volts) that escapes and slams into DNA, a ribosome or some other biologically important molecule. And, unlike other radionuclides, tritium is usually part of water, so it ends up in all parts of the body and therefore can, in theory, promote any kind of cancer. 

Some evidence suggests the kind of radiation emitted by tritium—a so-called beta particle—is actually more effective at causing cancer than the high-energy radiation such as gamma rays, even though skin can block a beta particle. The theory is that the low-energy electron actually produces a greater impact because it doesn’t have the energy to travel as far and spread its impact out. At the end of its atomic-scale trip it delivers most of its ionizing energy in one relatively confined track rather than shedding energy all along its path like a higher-energy particle. This is known as density of ionization, and has been shown with the similar form of radiation called an alpha particle.
 
Ionization is what makes radiation dangerous for human health. Essentially, the radioactive particle smashes into the atom or molecule and pushes out an electron or other particle, leaving that atom or molecule in a charged or ionized state. These charged molecules can then cause other damage as they interact with other atoms and molecules. That includes damage to DNA, genes and other cellular mechanisms. Over time this DNA instability results in a higher chance of cancer. As a result, scientists work under the assumption that any amount of radiation poses a health risk.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/is-radioactive-hydrogen-in-drinking-water-a-cancer-threat/

Scottish Labour is, of course, committed to the Trident programme.