By Professor John Robertson:

The Guardian yesterday had the above, 469 788 shoplifting offences, across England and Wales in the year to June 2024.¹

In Scotland, the figure for the year to March 2024 was 38 674 according to the Grocery Gazette in June 2024.²

With 11 times the population, all things being equal and per head, England and Wales might have been expected to have had 425 000 cases but actually had 469 788, nearly 45 000 or 10.6% more.

10.6% is statistically significant. It tells you something is going on. Researchers into poverty levels say the presence of foodbanks is the ‘canary in the coalmine‘, the early warning, for spiking poverty levels.³

You can make a similar case for shoplifting, especially by women, commonly the child-carers, with 36% of women in prison serving a sentence for shoplifting compared to only 11% of men.⁴

More tragically, abortion is another recognised canary. In May this year, I wrote:

From the Guardian today:

There were 251,377 abortions for women resident in the two nations in 2022, official figures from the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) show.⁵

With 9% of the population of England & Wales, all things being equal, you might expect, Scotland to have had around 22 600 abortions in the same year.

According to Abortion Rights in May 2023, it had 16 584, around 6 000 fewer.

The abortion rate in England & Wales is a shocking 36% higher than in Scotland, after 17 years of SNP rule and 14 years of Tory/Labour rule in England/Wales.

Also, from Abortion Rights in 2019:

Abortion statistics are the canary in the coalmine for reproductive rights. The warning signs are here, women’s reproductive healthcare is paying a high price under the government’s austerity measures. Our ability to choose means nothing in practice if services are cut and waiting times are increased.

What could account for this difference in thousands of abortions avoided in Scotland?

Shorter waiting lists, more midwives, more home visitors, the Child Payment, more affordable housing….

I know, drug deaths…drug deaths…

England abortion capital of…..?

England shoplifting capital of…..?

Sources:

1. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/oct/24/shoplifting-offences-in-england-and-wales-at-highest-level-on-record-ons-figures-show
2. https://www.grocerygazette.co.uk/2024/06/26/shoplifting-scotland-10-high/#:~:text=Shoplifting%20in%20Scotland%20has%20reached,David%20Lonsdale%20called%20%E2%80%9Cappalling%E2%80%9D.
3. https://www.developmenteducationreview.com/issue/issue-33/foodbank-canary-coalmine-neoliberalism
4. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-67687565#:~:text=Vulnerable%20and%20exploited,on%20Tuesday%2012%20December%202023.
5. https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/24/number-abortions-england-wales-record-levels