Latest poll – Evidence of Labour collapse far worse in Scotland for Sarwar than for Starmer in UK

In a survey of 2 000 GB adults on 11-13 October 2024, JLP found Labour on 29% and Cons on 25% but in Scotland, the above narrowing may have become a life-threatening collapse for Anas Sarwar:

An admittedly small sub-sample of 145 Scots returned these results.

  • Cons – 25%
  • Labour – 16%
  • Lib Dems – 14%
  • Reform – 15%
  • SNP – 24%

Still worrying for the SNP and casting doubt on their centrist/rightist drift on Palestine and, most recently, human rights, but a complete disaster for Labour, flirting with 5th place, 9 points behind the Cons and 8 behind the SNP.

If these data are reliable they confirm that Reform will take from Labour too and that Scottish voters see their Tories as less toxic and more forgivable than the London sub-species.

Source: https://jlpartners.co.uk/s/October-Omnibus-Poll-Tables-7b4n.xlsx

SNP? Get back lads! Progressive taxation, universal benefits and making a fuss at Westminster.

13 thoughts on “Latest poll – Evidence of Labour collapse far worse in Scotland for Sarwar than for Starmer in UK”

  1. The fact that the Tories and Reform have 40% is worrying. SNP on 25% is also bad news. If Labour’s 16% is added to Tory/Reform there will be a right wing administration in Holyrood which will seek to end devolution.

    Alasdair Macdonald.

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    1. Indeed! According to polling numbers:

      25% opting for a Tory Party moving even further rightwards

      15% opting for Reform which is already there on the far right

      16% opting for the new incarnation of one nation Toryism or worse.

      Let’s hope this unrepresentative sub-sample is indeed bollocks or else after rejecting by majority the Tories for c. 70 years, Scotland’s electorate is changing radically and not for the better IMHO!

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  3. I’m inclined to think this polling is a contrived nonsense, with around 56% wanting a referendum and independence your not likely to see nigh on 60% intending to vote for unionist English party’s.

    Golfnut

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  5. “Latest poll – Evidence of Labour collapse far worse in Scotland for Sarwar than for Starmer in UK”

    That as a reality should have been what happened via the actual votes in the 2024 UK GE with the majority of voters within Scotland.

    So perhaps we ,who many of the gutter press refer to as being ‘Nasty Nats’ , should instead be regarded more as ‘Insightful Nats’ as opposed to “Nasty“.

    As did we or did we not ( including this very blog) predict many of the woes that would result in many voters having ‘buyers remorse’ , that is if they voted for Labour in the recent GE , and also if Labour won seats from the SNP, with many of those voters in Scotland either ‘lending’ or OMG willingly ‘giving’ their vote to Labour.

    You see “Change” was a Labour slogan.

    Now a proven empty Labour slogan .

    Only adopted as a Labour slogan to gain Labour power.

    Power now gained by Labour then means that the empty Labour slogan need not be fulfilled.

    Labour now just adopt excuses blaming everyone bar themselves .

    Excuses that they assume will allow them to renege on all of their former pledges and promises that real “Change” would happen immediately if they were voted in as the new UK government.

    Indeed Starmer said they, Labour , as the new UK government would “hit the ground running” – but reality is they, Labour, ‘fell at the first hurdle’- and now seem to be incapable of getting up from what is seemingly gutter level.

    However if I had to name who I am mostly frustrated and angry with in respect to Scotland’s current situation then it would have to be my fellow citizens in Scotland, who either refuse to see political reality or are too apathetic and complacent to even care enough to change their surreal voting patterns and so finally start supporting Scottish independence and the parties who support it.

    Also , as those citizens in Scotland who vote for pro UK parties , including the Labour party, their memories as citizens of Scotland seem to fail to recall what Labour told us (promised us) would be “Better” for us, as a nation, in 2014.

    However that also turned out to be just more empty slogans by Labour that failed to deliver “Better” for Scotland but instead made us in Scotland suffer “Together” with the rest of the UK under a UK government.

    I think we all know what the real choice is now for us to ever see real change in Scotland.

    However it’s not us on here, and others like us, who need to be aware of that real fact but it is for other citizens of Scotland , who for various questionable reasons, keep making the same wrong voting decisions year in and year out and perhaps are expecting a different outcome as a result of their same (wrong) vote !

    So perhaps they , as voters, may one day eventually, one hopes, all (collectively) change their vote to one that will send a message to WM and then they can back up that changed vote with more proactive actions showing their majority support as Scottish citizens for Scotland to then become an independent country and one where their country ,Scotland , can then become known as *** “a clean energy superpower” but only as an independent country.

    ( *** to quote Labour’s Sir Keir Starmer).

    To fail to change as a voter in Scotland and so just keep voting for pro UK parties (via by-elections and other subsequent elections ) is then to relinquish all power, money and control to those who are only too happy to continue to plunder our resources not for our benefit but instead only for the benefit of others .

    While they , as UK government and as UK political parties, will continue to denounce our country , Scotland, as being the poor relation in a dysfunctional supposed but not “Family of Nations”.

    Mind you if a majority of some others votes were changed in favour of independence parties and also for independence then I would also expect more proactive measures from the SNP as my support for them is not eternal or indeed unconditional.

    However one can only live in hope for the future as currently there seems to be more despair than hope.

    Not my fault, and to quote a great wee song title about the result of the 2014 Scottish independence vote , which was written by the Scottish songwriter Bobby Nicholson , well in respect to that prolonged despair many of us have endured, since 2014 -as the song title states:

    “It wisnae me”.

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  7. UK government Scotland tweet on 15 October 2024:

    “Yesterday the UK Government secured £63 billion of investment to provide almost 38,000 jobs. Scotland will benefit from the UK Government’s plans to drive growth. Some quickfire qs to Scottish Secretary @IanMurrayMP on why Scotland is the place to invest”.

    (Note how this tweet does not specify that the “38,000 jobs” will be in Scotland in fact they only mention Scotland as supposdley benefitting via the “UK government’s plans to drive growth” but then how will Scotland benefit from that , as surely it is more their whole UK , as in mainly one part of it- not Scotland- that will derive more benefits, to include majority of jobs and “growth“, which will also then include any profits for the UK only going to the Treasury of the UK government).

    So the attached video had quick fire Q’s to Ian Murray.

    Q :”Why should people choose Scotland” ?

    His answer: “It’s the best place to live , work and love in the world”

    (However as far as investments are concerned it is more a case of our Scottish resources being rife for plundering, exploiting and profiting from as being the more honest answer we should be hearing from the so called Scottish SOS Ian Murray).

    Q: “What is your main takeaway from this summit about the future of UK investment”

    His answer: “It’s going to be stable, innovative and a government that’s 100% behind the mission of growth. Which means that this is the best place to be, Britain’s open for business. And if there’s any investments to come anywhere in the world it should come to here” ?

    ( “growth” for whom ? Who will really profit from these external investments ? Is Britain really “open for business” or is it Scotland’s resources and land that is still up for sale via another UK government ?).

    Q: “How will the international investment summit impact the people of Scotland” ?

    His answer: “Well we want to bring in more investment so we can provide that growth. We can meet our missions that will mean prosperity for all over the country, including Scotland”

    (“investment for growth” so what about actual jobs in Scotland . How many in Scotland as a return for investors investing in our country via our resources. Murray says “prosperity for all over the country” and then he adds “including Scotland” as an aside. I think we all know where the majority of prosperity will be and also where the majority of jobs will go in Britain too).

    Yesterday I also saw this online in respect to someone having noted this in regards to the UK governments plans for investments into their, Labour party’s, ‘Britain’.

    ” There are no mandates to ensure GB Energy & foreign energy firms source from UK suppliers. The Iberdrola (Scottish Power) investment is mainly for the East Anglia wind farm – creating 450 jobs in Fene, Spain – all supplied by a Spanish state company (Navantia)”

    This was in response to a tweet that the UK government Scotland had tweeted:

    “Spain’s largest power company @Iberdrola is investing £24b for it’s British arm @ScottishPower ahead of the international investment summit. PM @KeirStarmer and @ScotSecOfState @IanMurrayMP welcomed Executive Chairman Ignacio Galan with a bottle of @johnnniewalker following the news”.

    (So “investing £24b for it’s British arm”, at checks notes, “@ScottishPower”. Yes I think we all know what is really going on here. Scotland is for sale and that sale will benefit mostly the buyers and also those who are selling off Scotland’s resources – as in the UK government aka currently the Labour party).

    Talking of growth it was reported that “UK government is not considering a Scottish visa to attract migrants” an SNP MP said that a Scottish separate immigration system “would allow Holyrood to “tackle the Brexit-born staff shortages that have inflicted pain and hardship upon our NHS and Scottish businesses”.

    Prior to the GE Jackie Baillie stated that “her party would look at ways to “incentivise” migrants to the UK to settle in Scotland”

    (“incentivise” well that’s an interesting word to use and also one that is an open to interpretation as a non committal statement on there ever being a distinct policy for Scotland on immigration from the rest of the UK)

    However days after the GE Anas Sarwar was asked if he would push the prime minister for a distinct immigration system north of the border. His response was ““No. We have to have one UK border agency, of course we need one immigration system” .

    (Yet in Scottish Labour’s ‘election’ manifesto ‘they’ “pledged to reform the UK migration advisory committee and to ensure migration and skills policies “work for every part of the UK“. However I guess we were not electing Scottish Labour in the UK GE as we were electing UK Labour MP’s to sit in the UK parliament).

    Bottom line is that all any UK government does as a UK government is not to act for Scotland or on behalf of Scotland but only act as colonial masters to assume that they, as a UK government, represent us in Scotland and so they own all of our resources to do with as they, as a UK government, please. All that Scotland gets from them, as UK governments, is condescension and a succession of worthless platitudes, that they assume will be sufficient in order to try to placate us but really just being uttered to try to keep us quiet aka to shut us up.

    GB Energy where are all of the jobs in Scotland then ?

    So far only learnt about jobs and investment via GB Energy in Merseyside and Teeside aka “growth” for England.

    4th October tweet via the UK PM @10DowningStreet:

    “A new era for the clean energy industry”

    “The UK is investing in carbon Capture technology in Teesside & Merseyside”

    “4000 new jobs”

    “Accelerate towards Net Zero”

    “£21.7 billion investment”

    UK not investing in UK then but seemingly investing in England , jobs and growth there.

    Scotland gets a nameplate as GB Energy HQ.

    So what about Scotland (jobs) ?

    What indeed.

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  9. The latest non “change” that may come to pass from the new Labour government in the UK is that it is being reported that Rachel Reeves is planning to “continue freezing tax thresholds beyond the period planned by the Tories”.

    MSM Monitor Twitter account tweeted a video of Keir Starmer in the HOC , when the Labour party were the official opposition to the former Tory UK government.

    Part of this video showed Starmer attacking the Tories “for freezing tax thresholds” and it also showed Rachel Reeves sitting behind Starmer “nodding” at everything he, Starmer , said in relation to his attack upon the Tories on this subject.

    MSM Monitor Twitter account also tweeted:

    “We await Anas Sarwar’s reaction to news Labour is set to continue to freeze income tax thresholds beyond 2028 given he attacked the SNP for freezing income tax thresholds earlier this year. We’re sure someone will ask him if he now supports the idea”

    “We’re sure someone will ask him if he now supports the idea” ?

    I love the sarcasm at the suggestion that any media here, especially the BBC, will even bother to seek Sarwar out to make him explain and also defend this, should it indeed come to pass , via Labour as the new UK government.

    Labour ‘sources’ are insisting that, if it did happen, it would not be a pledge breaker.

    Surely that’s not their call but for others , like say us the public, to decide whether it is a pledge breaker or not, if they do indeed decide to proceed with this.

    As it was reported that “In the run-up to July’s general election, both the Labour leader, Sir Keir Starmer and the soon-to-be Chancellor Rachel Reeves, pledged to “not increase taxes on working people”.

    Also a threshold freeze would bring more people into the tax system.

    “If Reeves goes ahead with the plan, roughly 400,000 more people will find themselves paying income tax at the basic rate”

    However “government insiders” insist that “this does not breach Labour’s manifesto pledge to “not increase taxes on working people”.

    (Well they would say that wouldn’t they as they are “government insiders”).

    It was reported that “In 2019, the Conservatives also pledged not to increase tax “rates” – and then they went on to freeze tax thresholds. At the time, this action was denounced by the Labour opposition as a “stealth tax”.

    You know it almost seems as if Labour , when they were in opposition to the Tory UK government, were merely opposing Tory policies for the sake of it , with them being the official opposition party, but really as Tory policies they, Labour, were not actually opposed to them at all.

    Labour are demonstrating this now via their adopting and extending previously instigated Tory policies by the former UK Tory government that seems to convey the message to the Tory party from Labour that:

    “Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery”.

    Perhaps can also quote below lyrics from a song in Jungle book that may be more fitting to what has happened to Labour under Starmer in them trying to imitate the Tories. (also WM is a bit of a political Jungle and Labour do often try to ape the Tories in both copying their words and actions– that is their policies ).

    “Oh, oobee doo
    I wanna be like you
    I wanna walk like you
    Talk like you, too”

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  10. Would you look at the state of the comments.

    Its a friggin subset of only 149, it means diddly squat, completely useless and meaningless.

    There are several clues as to how daft it is Tories up 24% every other poll has them around 14%. A combines Tory/Reform % of 40% in Scotland, away and give your head a wobble.

    It really is tiresome going big on such nonsense and does no credit to the paper. the party or the cause.

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