Latest Scottish sub-poll has SNP 8 points clear and Reform ahead of Tories

(c) Richard Dyson

Just a sub-poll of only 122 but it comes as the SNP humiliate Scottish Labour in 4 local by-elections in Perth and in Dundee, just after an Ipsos poll puts Anas Sarwar well behind both Swinney and Forbes in the popularity stakes and two weeks after a full Survation poll showed the SNP had caught Scottish Labour in period that should normally have been honeymoon period for the latter.

  • Con 10%
  • Lab 24%
  • Lib Dem 11%
  • SNP 32%
  • Reform 14%
  • Green10%

We’ll need more evidence for confidence in a full SNP recovery but things are looking shaky for Sarwar.

As for the Cons, Reform were only 3 points behind them, two weeks ago, in the Survation poll. They have reason to be worried too.

Sources:

https://x.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1842558408098238587

https://view.officeapps.live.com/op/view.aspx?src=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.survation.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2024%2F09%2F18163445%2FPSTablesSeptember24.xlsx&wdOrigin=BROWSELINK

9 thoughts on “Latest Scottish sub-poll has SNP 8 points clear and Reform ahead of Tories

    1. Can you image the horror in the “Scottish Media” over that report and its findings!

      Just how can that be turned into a SNPBAD outcome? Maybe the Ferret could help 🙂

      Liked by 3 people

  1. While a poll of just over a hundred is still shaky ground, it’s encouraging to think that people are taking enough interest in politics to at least shake the tree a little because apathy has been our main problem. When people start to see politicians as the problem and not the solution, then we know the path had become overgrown and we need to reach for the spades and start clearing it.

    Liked by 2 people

  2. Perhaps some (more) in Scotland are finally realising that Keir Starmer really is not a man of his word.

    As with Keir Starmer it does now seem that ‘talk is (very) cheap’ when it is never backed up, by him and his party as the new UK government, by any real action. (especially for Scotland).

    If you promise “Change” and then deliver the same old same old as the previous (Tory) UK government then you will find that some voters in Scotland , who in the recent GE either lent your party their vote or gave your party their vote as they were already taken in by you and your party.

    Well they will now, as voters, have had an epiphany and be more aware that perhaps your party and you as it’s leader are nowt but political frauds.

    Thanks to a Bella Caledonia Tweet where they referenced an article written by Keir Starmer for The Sun newspaper on the 3 October 2024 , where he , Starmer, used insults against those who want stronger action on climate change the piece in The Sun was titled:

    “I will not sacrifice Great British industry to the drum-banging, finger-wagging Net Zero extremists”.

    As Mike Small noted this was “Reform UK territory” .

    Which it seems Keir Starmer is determined as a politician to encroach upon politically.

    However let’s also not forget that Keir Starmer in 2020 during the Labour leadership hustings claimed, as a leadership candidate, that he would not speak to The Sun newspaper, which he said when he was at a hustings in Liverpool.

    Fast forward to October 2023 and Keir Starmer, as the now new leader of the Labour party, in an interview with ITV Granada Reports’ Political Correspondent Andrew Misra , declared that he , as the new Labour leader, was ” happy to continue to write and work for The Sun newspaper” .

    “Happy to continue” while knowing about the existing boycott there is in Liverpool of The Sun newspaper based on what they wrote and headlined after the Hillsborough tragedy about Liverpool fans when the odious Kelvin McKenzie was their Editor.

    (Also Keir Stramer was the Director of Public Prosecutions when the report came in on the Hillsborough case).

    When asked why he has since decided to write for the tabloid, Mr Starmer said:

    “I have to make sure that what we have to say is communicated to as many people as possible in the time that we’ve got available and that is why I am very happy to work with The Sun, to write for The Sun, to do interviews with The Sun.”

    (That’s because Keir Starmer wants to reach out to those who voted for Brexit , voted for Boris Johnson in the 2019 UK GE, who watch GB News and who are now considering voting for Reform UK party in future subsequent GE’s )

    So Labour, via Keir Starmer, needs to reach out to them as voters and also it seems pander to them and also pander to the newspaper (The Sun) that pretends to represent them as the British public- and is owned by his, Starmer’s, favourite media proprietor Rupert Murdoch).

    In 2020 during his campaign for the leadership of the Labour party he said this:

    ” “I certainly won’t be giving any interviews to The Sun during the course of this campaign.”

    “During the course of this campaign” How clever of him.

    So then in him saying that it was then obviously a purely ‘tactical’ statement and decision and not a principled one.

    Sounds about right for him based on what he and his party have done (or rather not done) since coming to power in July 2024 as the new Labour UK government.

    Let’s also remember that as far as Scotland is concerned you cannot come up here, as Labour leader prior to the UK GE and declare to Scotland that Scotland will (supposdley) “lead the clean energy revolution” but then only deliver (when you become the new Labour PM) an HQ nameplate in Scotland for GB Energy Ltd .

    To then add further insult to injury upon Scotland you, your chancellor and your Energy minister then announce a £22 billion investment in Merseyside & Teesside in England.

    As you then might just find that for more voters in Scotland ‘the penny will finally drop’ as to why previous to the 2024 UK GE, they as voters, did not ever choose after 2014, to vote for your Labour party in any elections (via a majority).

    BTW Labour’s energy minister Ed Miliband’s official government title is this:

    Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero.

    Why is “Net Zero” in his ministerial title?

    As if we have the PM write this ” “I will not sacrifice Great British industry to the drum-banging, finger-wagging Net Zero extremists” then does that also make his , Energy minister an “extremist” too ?

    Or is Keir Starmer, in writing this in The Sun just him yet again ‘playing to the audience’ as in Sun readers whom he assumes are a certain type of voter that he and his party needs to keep onside to try to retain power in the UK?

    I know what I think and hopefully (finally) more in Scotland also think that too.

    That is if you want real and actual change you need to, in Scotland, stop voting for any pro UK political party in either a UK GE , the Scottish Holyrood elections and also in Scottish council elections ( also to include any By-elections in Scotland at any level).

    Then of course start believing in, supporting and then voting FOR Scottish independence as you will by now have seen and lived through the alternative to Scottish independence, as in life as a UK citizen as governed by various Pro UK political parties, and now, at last, will have finally realised that being a UK citizen sucks big time!

    Liked by 1 person

  3. Labour are finished. Pensioners and their families vote. All the promises made have been reneged upon. Sleaze and corruption. Same old, same old Labour.

    Liked by 1 person

  4. O/T

    SKY News last night had a rolling headline at the bottom of their screen on their news programme where they referred to Sean Clerkin as the “whistleblower” who instigated the investigation into the SNP.

    Whistleblower – “is when an employee reports suspected wrongdoing at work. Officially this is called “making a disclosure in the public interest”. If you suspect wrongdoing in your workplace, you should follow the whistleblowing procedures in your own organisation”.

    Sorry so how then is Sean Clerkin a “whistleblower” under the true definition of that word ?

    He has neither worked for the SNP as an employee nor is he currently a member of the SNP.

    Surely SKY News should be reported to Ofcom for this obvious lie.

    See that is what we are up against and I wonder how many disengaged voters in Scotland will be unaware of who he, Clerkin, really is and the fact as to who he is most certainly not , as per the definition, of what one would define as being an actual “Whistleblower”.

    Apparently SKY News are presenting him as a ‘victim’ of nasty independence supporters.

    BTW previously he was described by Pro UK media as a “Menace”, an “agitator” and as “Notorious” and a “Hardcore Nationalist” when he was formerly part of The Scottish Resistance now he is their Hero !

    Liked by 2 people

  5. Another Déjà vu moment.

    Where it may seem as if we are all still now being governed by a Tory UK government.

    Just been announced that Sue Gray has resigned as Sir Keir Starmer’s chief of staff.

    (Well that was short lived as a position for her– indeed blink and you may have missed it as something that (once) existed).

    She, Sue Gray, had been caught up in rows over pay when it emerged that , as Sir Keir Starmer’s chief of staff, she had received a pay rise which meant she was on a higher salary than Keir Starmer as Labour leader and as the new PM .

    It was revealed last month that Ms Gray had asked for and was given a salary of £170,000 after July’s election – about £3,000 more than the PM and more than her Conservative predecessor, as in Rishi Sunak’s chief of staff.

    So seems there was no ‘financial black hole’ there then, as in Labour being able to pay that kind of salary to a member of staff in their party .

    So just like the Tories, Labour now need to try to sweep sweep this under the carpet (as yet another questionable matter since they, Labour, were elected in the recent GE as the new UK government) so she has now resigned ( as the nominated fall guy -or rather in this case woman).

    Of course the person (Keir Starmer) who ‘appointed’ her to this role and agreed to that salary being paid (as in acceptable) is then supposed to be considered blameless in all this – so no change there then (from Boris Johnson and the Tories).

    But do not worry as she has not left Politics , in fact she has only been moved to another position with the Labour party.

    As she now has a new position as ‘the PM’s envoy for nations and regions’

    What ?

    “PM’s envoy for Nations and Regions” ?

    Envoy definition – a messenger or representative , especially one on a diplomatic mission.

    When was this an actual role ?

    Pray tell me what exactly will be anticipated as being needed to be done by a PM’s envoy ?

    All of these Q’s and yet will we get any answers or even want to know the answers as knowing the answers may then make us even madder than we already are.

    I think I may have to write to Anas Sarwar to ask him when exactly the “Fresh Start” and the “Real change” is going to start with Labour UK as the new UK government – as in I will ask on behalf of millions of people who live in Scotland as opposed to just asking for a friend Ha Ha.

    We do need to be allowed to gloat as Labour are proving themselves to be everything that we on here, and elsewhere too, rightly assumed they would be if elected as the new UK government.

    That is #Useless-And-Just-As-Bad-As-The-Tories-As-The-New-UK-Government

    Liked by 1 person

    1. I just realised with my above comment on Sue Gray.

      Why does she have this new role as the PM’s Envoy for Nations and Regions ?

      I mean we have a SOS in Scotland, Wales & in NI.

      We also have various regional Mayors in England.

      So is this just yet another layer of unnecessary (unelected) bureaucracy .

      Or is this just a way to keep her , Sue Gray, onboard in creating what sounds like a totally ‘surplus to requirement’ position as she was willing to ‘fall on her sword’ so to speak , in order to try and stop what they, Labour , called a “distraction” while we saw it as yet another scandal that mirrored what often happened on a regular basis with the former Tory UK government(s).

      In May of this year in a speech in Scotland Keir Starmer was highlighting how since February of last year the SNP have had three leaders as in NS, HY and now John Swinney.

      Yet how long has he, Keir Starmer, been in office as the new UK PM , well that would be just over 3 months and already his Chief of staff has resigned via a scandal on pay ( plus already Labour are the subject of scandals via donations and so called ‘Freebies”).

      Let’s also not forget the Welsh Labour FM Vaughan Gething who was elected in March 2024 then had to resign in July 2024 because of a scandal (but he, Vaughan Gething, had Keir Starmer’s full confidence before and during his time in office as in when the scandal was reported that surrounded him as a Labour Welsh minister and Welsh FM).

      Not forgetting that he , Gething, was accused of perjury in his evidence to the Covid inquiry in him denying that he had deleted text messages from his phone , he also lost a VONC in the Welsh parliament and initially refused to stand down. He was also embroiled in the £20,000 donation scandal where he had received a donation from a company whose owner had twice been convicted of environmental offences.

      So The SNP will take no lessons or dressing down from the likes of Sir Keir Starmer and his Labour party upon how many FM’s they have had and reasons their FM’s have stood down.

      Yet I suppose that’s his (Starmer’s) job as in to pretend that both he and his party are seemingly (according to them only) different and above reproach while all others (political parties ) are the opposite. Unfortunately the(growing) evidence disputes that as a fact.

      Like

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