Yesterday’s Multilevel Regression and Poststratification (MRP) modelling, by Survation, ‘to provide accurate estimates of current voting intention’, suggests:
and most interestingly this:
That median share is a surprise. Most polling recently has estimated the SNP share to be around 3% and often only 2% with a consequent heavy loss of seats. 4% would be very good news.
I’m assuming a Scottish sample of around 4 000 as 8% of the total 42 000.
Survation is fairly new to MRP. See:
Survation moved to a full ballot-prompted methodology on May 30th and this approach is reflected in the most recent waves of sample, with the model taking into account time – giving more weight to recently collected data.
I can’t help but like the look of this but recognised my lack of expertise in this field.
Comments?
You can explore the data more fully at: B4B_VI_MRP_20240614.xlsx (live.com)
Talking-up Scotland / Facts on NHS, Crime, ferries and everything else you can think of 
The more people hear about Starmers labour party, it seems the less they like the look of them, whether it’s on Gaza the NHS but especially about what his plans for Scotland are.
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This will bring an absolute deluge of SNPBaaD/Scotland is Shite, stories and articles from what passes for a media here,
with the BBC at the head of the charge.
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If the Scottish Borders turns SNP yellow I can die happily. We’re getting a lot of positive feedback on the ground but staying cautious, especially with many of our able bodied activists temporarily awol in Germany.
Despite MSM efforts to ignore the SNP campaign (and indeed all the other smaller parties bar Reform) the 7 way debates, Question Time and occasional interviews are letting SNP reps put forward our alternative narrative. This is getting attention not just from our own outlets like this blog but also from some of the more radical presenters UK wide
I can’t even complain about the absentees in Germany as they are doing a fantastic job of winning friends and interest in Europe. English commentators mistakenly believe we will be silenced after just one defeat, just like their politicians and media try to deny our presence following 2014, but we’re all still here fighting and full of hope for our country
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Might this have a connection with Sarwar doing a no show with Martin Giesler? Has he been placed, like a budgie in his cage with a cover over?
Too many awkward questions to dodge, nuclear power, British Energy, NHS privatisation, two child cap. The list goes on. Sarwar feirt?
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Alan Gordon
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