are making them feel vulnerable and sometimes unsafe. The Inspectorate of Constabulary says resources are a major concern, as well as the state of police buildings and disruption to days off.
From Reporting Scotland this morning, the above. Note the word ‘feel‘ twice.
We then hear from the Chief Inspector of Constabulary:
It is glowing white hot. It is massive in the growth of demand and it’s more than I’ve ever seen. Resourcing is a challenge. You’re reducing the officer numbers. You’re reducing the amount of people available to work on a shift. It will cause problems because it will spread that demand to an even smaller number.
I’m not for one minute suggesting that some police officers do feel that way and did tell the inspector that but does he not need to inspect the figures too?
First, demand:
Crime did increase last year from 523 per 10 000 population to 528 per 10 000 population, less than 1%, but:
Look at the level of crime in 2006 just before the SNP came to power and the 50% fall to 2022-2023. Overall, reported crime is at only half the level it was when Labour last ruled!
I know critics will say lots of crime is not reported. True, but public opinion tells the very same story as the police reporting.
The Scottish Crime and Justice Survey (SCJS) is based on 5 600 face-to-face interviews. This is a very large sample, scientifically constructed to represent all social groups. Compared with opinion polls with samples of around 1 000, this method is gold-standard for validity and reliability.
It found an estimated 494,000 crimes in 2021/22 [Down 53% since 2008/9] , of which 360,000 (73%) were property crimes and 133,000 (27%) were violent crimes. Since 2008/09 property crime has halved (down 51%) whilst violent crime has fallen by 58% over the same time period.
Police Scotland figures for the same year suggest 289 362 crimes, considerably lower than the 494 000 estimate, based on the 5 600 interviews but, crucially, suggest a very similar fall in the level.
The SCJS figures tells us that people are reporting a 53% fall in all crime from 2008/9, to them.
The Police reporting figures tell us that people are reporting a fall from a round 500 000 to 300 000, of 40%, to them.
Either way a big fall is confirmed and it might be the case that the Police figures understate that fall.
Scottish Crime and Justice Survey 2021/22 – gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
Second, police officer numbers reduced? Not true:
From Scotland’s Chief Statistician on 1 August 2023, published statistics on Police Officer Quarterly Strength, which gives the number of full-time equivalent police officers employed by Police Scotland:
The key findings of the statistics are:
- There were 16,600 full-time equivalent (FTE) police officers in Scotland on 30 June 2023
- Police officer numbers decreased by 15 FTE officers (-0.1%) in the last quarter from 31 March 2023
- Police officer numbers decreased by 11 FTE officers (-0.1%) in the last year from 30 June 2022
- This is an increase of 366 FTE police officers (+2.3%) from the 16,234 FTE police officers recorded at 31 March 2007
So, a statistically insignificant fall of less than 1% in the last year but more police officers than under Labour yet with only just over half the crime rate.
https://www.gov.scot/publications/police-officer-quarterly-strength-statistics-30-june-2023
Half the crime, a trend for more officers. Why doesn’t the inspector note that?
Talking-up Scotland 'Albatraz' 
Police arrest and charge. Instead of investigate, then arrest and charge. Too many innocent people on remand. Losing jobs etc. Too many people in prison. The highest in Europe. Half are neurodiverse without diagnosis. Prison is too noisy, loud and bright for neurodiversity, without support. There should be a caution for mild misdemeanours.
Half are alcohol, drug related and should be in total abstinence, proper rehab facilities. Drinks in the wits out. Crime is linked to over consumption of alcohol and drugs.
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There was a dramatic fall in police office numbers (FTEs) across Q2 2021 through 2022. Strategic intent – response to falling crime rate and therefore need? Or some other – unforeseen and/or unwelcome – cause?
Source: https://www.gov.scot/publications/police-officer-quarterly-strength-statistics-31-december-2023/
My guess would be the latter i.e. not part of a planned substantial reduction, even at a time of overall budget constraints. Has the Scottish Government or Police Scotland explained the fall? Perhaps a Covid-related impact on recruitment/training to make good resignations and retirements?
The Chief Constable’s report to the Scottish Police Authority dated 23 March 2022 also noted, on the issue of staff retention: ‘Recent pension changes may also have an impact on officer attrition levels in the short to medium term.’
Although the drop in number was halted in late 2022/early 2023, the latest quarterly figure – for Q4 2023 – shows another marked drop, from 16,613 down to 16,363 FTEs. Any idea as to why? May be a one quarter blip of course and not the start of another downward trend.
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On recruitment, Police Scotland submitted a paper to the Scottish Police Authority dated 24 February 2024: ‘Recruitment and Protected Characteristic Impact Report’ (https://www.spa.police.uk/spa-media/pn0n522u/item-6-1-recruitment-and-protected-characteristic-impact-report.pdf )
It summarises police officer intakes across the period 2021/22 and 2022/23 up to 18 September: between intake dates of 18 June 2021 to 18 September 2023 there were a total of 1,924 new officer recruits.
Police Scotland uses three metrics to monitor its recruitment ‘pipeline’:
On application levels, between the year 2019/20 and 3 October 2023, monthly average recruitment rates each year have ranged from a high of 468 per month in 2020/21 (with no advertising) to a low of just 206 per month in 2021/22 and 226 per month in Q2 and Q3 of 2023.
On attrition, there has been a significant rate increase across the reporting period. The document draws this comparison:
It explains that the most noticeable increases in attrition are within the stages of ‘Assessment Day’, ‘Vetting’ and ‘Medical’ – ‘which supports the position that recruitment teams are experiencing a drop in candidate standard.’
The document goes on: ‘Against the above challenging backdrop, it is however reassuring to evidence a clear and non-negotiable maintenance of recruitment standards.’
It notes that: ‘VETTING FAILS HAVE RISEN FROM AROUND 2-5% IN 2019-2021 TO AROUND 18-24% IN THE LEAD UP TO THE MAY 2023 POLICE OFFICER INTAKE.’ (my emphasis)
The report concludes that: ‘there is a significant increase in the number of candidates which are required to be sourced in order to achieve the probationer intake numbers. This is due to an overall upward trend of candidates who are failing assessment, medicals and vetting.’
Might a public service journalist use this kind of insight to provide context and perspective for a ‘story’ on falling police numbers? Danger of diluting negativity?
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Police ”Unions” complaining about their workload ? Hold the Press !
They need to take a number … behind doctors , nurses , teachers ,Care Workers ….
When have you EVER heard the Police ”Union” praising the support it gets from government ?
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“”Unions complaining”….
In Scotland you get many a Union not just “complaining” but ‘Politicising’ their ‘Complaints’ on behalf of one political party while simultanously ‘Politicising’ these ‘complaints’ very much against another political party….no need to mention which political parties fall into which category……or indeed which Unions I am referring to…..same could be said for the media in Scotland as well…..and too some others well platformed by that same media…..also no need to mention either the media or the others I refer to…..just the usual suspects……
NMRN
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