Biased sampling means YouGov have had 8 No leads since their last Yes lead in early December 2022

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence

Back in November 2022 and early December, YouGov had two Yes leads of 1% and 5% while Ipsos reported 11%.

Before that, their previous Yes lead was in Early November 2020, after another long run of NO leads, at just 1%, between Panelbase and Ipsos Yes leads of 11% and 13% respectively.

They had another Yes lead of 5% in August 2020 and a 1% Yes lead in January 2020, before an extended run of No leads all the way back to late November 2014 when they had 2.

In all those years and dozens of polls, Ipsos found several Yes leads, often in a sea of No leads.

Why? How?

Sampling of the roughly 1 000 respondents is a major factor, especially the ratio of the Yes to No voters in 2014 and the size of the younger ‘did not vote’ in 2014, proportion of the overall sample.

You can read more on this at the always enlightening: https://twitter.com/Celebs4indy

You can read more on Ipsos here: https://talkingupscotlandtwo.com/2024/02/07/do-the-folk-at-ipsos-mori-know-something-as-they-regularly-predict-a-yes-vote-and-snp-success-over-9-years/

11 thoughts on “Biased sampling means YouGov have had 8 No leads since their last Yes lead in early December 2022”

  3. Biased ? YouGov ? Absolutely not, just a rogue sample etc., etc., etc…

    It has been interesting to observe the explosion of polling companies coming to market and the ‘public attention’ drawn to their results by UK politicians.

    It’s become a highly lucrative industry, YouGov’s 220M+ revenues prove that point, hence no surprise other businesses might want a slice of the cake.

    I have grave reservations over honesty of these companies including Yougov, given the shift of emphasis from current opinion to prediction – As a political weapon it strikes me as little different to what the sub-postmasters suffered until now finally exposed to the public – YOU are the outlier, ONLY YOU have this issue.

    So thank you very much, but I’ll stick with Ipsos for credibility just the same, they earned it…

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    1. YouGov was founded by Stephen Shakespeare, former owner of Conservative home website, and Nadim Zahawi, former Tory Minister. No comment.

      I am on the YouGov panel and for some months now the surveys that they have sent to me have not had any obvious purpose or aim as to any current issue. They have seemed to me to be more about data harvesting than determining how people think about any given issue, or are going to vote.

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      2. I signed up to Yougov and the questions just got more and more personal without any sign of an actual poll. I gave up then as i’m sure many do.

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  4. Nadim Zahawi evaded tax.

    Pollsters always get it wrong. Especially in tight margins. Censored and fined so many times. Cambridge Analytica. Gerrymandering. Facebook illegally selling voters details. To swing the vote. Manipulate the vote. The piper pays the tune. Gives the client what they want. False logistics and data. Wasting, private and public monies. The bookies have better results.

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  5. Brexit pollsters got it wrong. Farague announced it wrong. Hedge funds made £Billions gambling on the result. Total fraud and corruption. Costing people £Billions. Higher prices and costs. Less markets, no CAP or shared Defence costs. EU membership gained £Billions. Now lost. Higher cost f living. Lower standard of living. Increased poverty. Lower life expectancy because of Austerity and Brexit. Tory going down. Unelected Sunak and Cameron causing trouble.

    Why anyone who supports Independence would vote unionist is a mystery? Unionist Parties do not support Independence.

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  7. Labour lead in poll in Scotland only on the front pages today of The Scotsman & Daily Telegraph….not the main headline but small section on front page…and not mentioned on the front page of The Daily Record…..as in Labour’s client media…or indeed on the front pages of any other newspapers but just the two I noted (via BBC News website)….I think that speaks for itself…as to the validity and credibility of that poll…..surely…….

    NMRN

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