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For the umpteenth time, I’m neither a psephologist like Sir Prof Curtice nor even hard-core statistician but, I know a wee bit.
So, while the variation from one poll to the next is of limited value, looking at trends based on, for example, the average in blocks of five or so, may be taken to reasonably suggest a trend.
The average Labour over Con lead in the last 5 polls is 17 points. In the previous 5, it was 21.2. In the previous 5 to that it was 20.4 and before that, 20.2.
Would it be fair to say, Starmer’s ‘personality’ and Labour’s right-wing policies are becoming clearer in minds despite media protection?
Would a 17 point lead for Labour be enough in the run-up to an election, given the probability of at least some currently disgruntled Con supporters return to the fold to vote against Labour and a number of current Labour seats with massively angry Muslim constituents tempted to vote for new parties?
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Talking-up Scotland 'Albatraz' 
I guess the smaller margin Labour has at the next GE can only be goodnews for the SNP if they themselves can hang onto the small band of MP’s at Westminster. It must surely mean that we and all the other smaller Parties will have the balance of power which in turn could possibly force another Indy ref. So lets get out there and spread the word.
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“<i>the average in blocks of five or so, may be taken to reasonably suggest a trend.</i>”
Regardless of which pollster it is, their methodology, their question, their sampling?
“<i>I’m neither a psephologist like Sir Prof Curtice nor even hard-core statistician …</i>”
Indeed.
“<i>… but, I know a wee bit.</i>”
Nope.
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No effort made to correct this unstatistical article so actually comparing a like for like lead, you get (ones in brackets are the first of two after Rochdale):
8–11 Mar More in Common 15% (nc)
23–27 Feb More in Common 15%
8–11 Mar Deltapoll 17% (-4)
(1–4 Mar Deltapoll 14%)
23–26 Feb Deltapoll 21%
10 Mar Redfield & Wilton 18% (-2)
(3 Mar Redfield & Wilton 20%)
25 Feb Redfield & Wilton 20%
7–8 Mar We Think 19% (nc)
(29 Feb – 1 Mar We Think 24%)
22–23 Feb We Think 19%
6–8 Mar Opinium 16% (+1)
(28 Feb – 1 Mar Opinium 15%)
21–23 Feb Opinium 15%
Average of 5 for same pollster change after Rochdale = -1%.
So, from 18% to 17%, using the fairly meaningless “method” of averaging 5 pollsters.
Which isn’t really significant considering it’s the LEAD, so effectively a drop of 0.5% from Lab and rise of 0.5% to Con.
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‘Regardless of which pollster it is, their methodology, their question, their sampling?’
They all sample, question and process in almost identical ways. Have a look before criticising
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And that neatly describes your problem.
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You don’t need to be a psephologist to read chatter on English forums that they’ve finally been screwed by their own hegemonic politics, left only with prayers that a left leaning progressive English version of the SNP or PC will appear out of somewhere and take ‘the country’ by storm rather than the Tice and dim but Tice partner….
Starmer and team peed in their chips by taking the Tory Mk2 line to begin with, but it was his Gaza position which sunk not only him but Westminster governance…
Contrary to your notion only Muslims are angry, we’re talking every religious denomination under the sun including jewish who are not angry but furious – The unwillingness of the media to even mention how poles apart UK politics is from public opinion is also sinking in, ‘This is Mis-Reporting X” from the BBC et al…
And then along comes the ‘Extremist’ line, 1984….
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Labour defined lead in the South is not followed in Scotland. Or the Tories 9%. Tories already toast, especially in Scotland. Voters in Scotland will protect themselves by voting SNP. People who support Independence should support and donate to the SNP, even if they are not members. To protect themselves from Westminster corruption.
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