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He asks, How much better or worse is the NHS in Scotland compared with ten years ago?
and claims it is:
x3 worse cancer treatment within 31 days
x7 worse cancer treatment within 62 days
Here are the data:
So, from 100% of patients seen on time in 2012 to 94.9% and 72% by the end of 2023.
You can clearly say 5.1% and 28% worse but how do you come up with 3 and 7 times worse?
If you look at the graph, you’ll see 31-day performance has been stable at around 95% for 5 years.
Most important, essential for judging performance, according to the full report, the 31 day level of 95% has been maintained despite a 24.2% surge in referrals since 2019 and the drop in the 61-day target is very similar to the referrals/demand surge..
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Maybe it’s time for research into why cancer referrals are rising. Scotland has a fairly stable population so there’s no significant rise in the numbers there.
A 24% rise in referrals seems to be a big jump. So, why are cancer cases rising? Which types of cancer are more prevalent? Which age groups are more likely to be referred for a specific type of cancer? Is the workplace a factor? All questions I would like to know the answers to.
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Yes, these are important questions. 24% is a substantial rise over a five year period given the demographic we have in Scotland.
My feeling given the way my GP practice operates is that routine screening and increased sensitivity of testing might be a significant factor.
I am satisfied with my GP practice – it has served me since the NHS came into existence and I pre-date the NHS.)
Over the years, it has increased the amount of screening which it does. Part of the reason for that is that as we get older my wife and I fall into more categories which get tested routinely simply on account of our age. If we happen to be assessed beyond a threshhold on some test, then we are re-tested in case the result was because of a fluctuation. In most cases, the re-test indicates that we are below the threshold. In the few cases where a significant change has been confirmed, the usual action is to increase or alter the medication. On literally, only 2/3 occasions have we been referred for further tests and these have proved negative. These referrals can be attributed to tests being made more sensitive to aspects of particular conditions.
Jenkins’ job is not to inform people about developments in health provision. It is to find fault and blame. Finding fault is important if it leads to improvement, but for the media blame is an end in itself. Ch4, like the rest of the mainstream media, takes a British colonialist perspective – the Celtic nations and the working classes are inferior and its job is to show to the Guardian readers that such lesser breeds are indeed inferior. The fact that Jenkins is Welsh does not seem to occasion self-reflection.
Alasdair Macdonald.
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Improvements in testing would certainly be a factor. Mammograms have become more sensitive & now pick up pre-cancerous conditions that would have previously not been picked up. Bowel screening is another example. When first introduced it was a bit messy to collect the sample and that put people off. Now collecting the sample is much easier so more people do it and thus the numbers detected increase.
Covid may also have a role to play in this. Much of the routine screening, cervical, bowel, breast, were suspended during 2020 then gradually opened up again during 2021. This may have led to an apparent increase in referrals.
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Ageing population?
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Certainly would be a factor but I’d like to see stats broken down in age groups too. My husband and I never dreamed we’d live into our 80s. Both of us come from parents who died from cancer and heart attacks.
Personally, I can’t see the point of keeping us old folk alive longer when every service is creaking at the seams. It’s not such a great life anyway after 80 if you’re not that able.
I know I’ll be pillioried for saying so, but it’s my experience. 70s were OK. 80s – not so much.
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When I saw the title of the piece was ” How has Scotland’s NHS performed under the SNP? “, and that it was hosted by Ciaran Jenkins as Data Correspondent and Presenter, a suit, an iPad, fancy graphics, and negative reporting were all entirely predictable.
The likes of Jenkins are not in the least interested in what causes the data to arise in order to educate the public, it is to find a political ‘gotcha’….
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