As always, nae facts.

Here’s some with apologies to regulars for repeating:

On the morning after:

Getting little media attention in the aftermath of the by-election in Rutherglen and Hamilton West and as Labour dream of a Westminster majority and of leading a Holyrood government in 2026, the Opinium poll for the Tony Blair Institute, based on data for mid-September 2023, casts serious doubt on the latter dream.

For the 4th poll in a row, as the SNP fraud drama fades in the midst of Police and courts inaction, Humza Yousaf has clearly settled the ship and recovery, regardless of freaky by-election results, is well underway and the SNP lead for the critical constituency vote is frankly soaring, up from only 5% two months ago to 16% in mid-September poll data.

Data for coalition partners the Green are not mentioned but the combined share of around 45% to 46% would surely produce a safe majority and put Labour back in their wee box.

Yesterday:

YouGov poll published today for 2-6 October 2023, has a 9 point lead for the SNP and Labour struggling to creep above the 30% share.

Looking more meaningfully at the averages for the last two blocks of 5 polls, we see the SNP average for the last 5 from mid-September and the lead over Labour were 38% and 9.4.

For the previous 5 polls from 1-2 July to 2-4 September, despite the media carpet bombing, the SNP support was 38% but the lead over Labour was only 6.2.

So, SNP support stable through difficult days and Labour not able to close gap.