Getting little media attention in the aftermath of the by-election in Rutherglen and Hamilton West and as Labour dream of a Westminster majority and of leading a Holyrood government in 2026, the Opinium poll for the Tony Blair Institute, based on data for mid-September 2023, casts serious doubt on the latter dream.
For the 4th poll in a row, as the SNP fraud drama fades in the midst of Police and courts inaction, Humza Yousaf has clearly settled the ship and recovery, regardless of freaky by-election results, is well underway and the SNP lead for the critical constituency vote is frankly soaring, up from only 5% two months ago to 16% in mid-September poll data.
Data for coalition partners the Green are not mentioned but the combined share of around 45% to 46% would surely produce a safe majority and put Labour back in their wee box.
Talking-up Scotland 'Albatraz' 
Do you have a link to the polling results rather than Wikipedia?
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Jrtomlin, hope this helps
https://www.institute.global/insights/politics-and-governance/more-united-than-divided-how-voters-see-scotlands-future
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Here https://view.officeapps.live.com/op/view.aspx?src=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.opinium.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2023%2F10%2FUK23200-TBI-Scotland-August-Poll.xlsx&wdOrigin=BROWSELINK
Couple of other points
1. Individual polls tell us a limited amount – more than nothing but not a lot. What we want is trend. If you go to Wiki its pretty obvious that the SNP had a bad time since early March this year, extending over some of the summer. Then in August, Yougov put a poll out that showed the SNP not only with a 10% lead, but for the first time in a while their vote is above 40%. This is followed (and confirmed to some extent) by four more polls, each be a different company showing the SNP above 40% (or very nearly – 39%). Moreover the gap with Labour is back above 10% – showing at about 15%. THEN the most recent poll by Redfield and Wilson puts the SNP back to the dog days of spring and summer with 35% and a lead of 6% over Labour – though in truth the lead hasnt increased as much as the SNP vote, suggesting the Tory vote is probably suffering from anti indy voters moving to Labour as most likely to prevent independence.
2. How long have political commentators – including the London commentariat – been practicing their lines for after the declaration. It’s hardly a big shock that Labour won. It’s hardly a big shock that they are celebrating winning – any party would. But all the “explanations” for tbeir win are predicated on the proposition are so f****d. I mean for someone with the gravitas of John Curtice to talk in terms of “if this result was repeated throughout Scotland” is just daftness beyond parody. Doesnt even merit the description “daft”. I’ve sent a letter to the Herald musing on how much the decline in the SNP vote was caused by SNP voters sickened by the goings on in the party/ loss of a leader with the gravitas of Sturgeon (though admiration for her can hardly be unalloyed any more) / their MP being recalled for an act of almost unbearable stupidity (delete whichever does not apply), rather than support for the Labour Party. Seen even some limited consideration of this? Even to reject it? No, me neither. But it does make a difference, for to the extent it is right (and it will probably be the Labour vote picking up, as well as the SNP vote preferring to watch the telly) it will be easier for the SNP to win it back.
It will though need more than a dog whistle. If there is anything remotely possible positive about this shambles its that it might be the kick the movement needs to come together and focus its fire on the other side instead of each other
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The turn would back you up, from memory, 37% and last election it was over 66%. Surprised Prof Curtice didn’t mention the turn out, it is important.
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he was asked. Said there is a law in politics that the winners say turnout doesnt matter while losers say it does. It sounded as if the increase in Labour’s vote share and decline in SNP share diminished significance of turnout. But other explanations are still possible, and the Labour vote is very close to the Labour vote with a ‘normal’ turnout (c65%) which makes me wonder if the SNP vote didnt so much collapse as stay home.
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The bulk of the SNP vote would indeed appear to have stayed at home – I’d hazard a guess it was as much a protest vote for Ferrier being stitched up than anything else, despite her actual misjudgement.
Also bear in mind it is only a year until the next GE, so there’ll be a degree of “keeping the powder dry” for when it matters.
The reality is none of the parties achieved the numbers they had in 2019, and the progressive rise in Tory support collapsed.
Despite Labour having poured resources into getting a landslide result, their numbers will be a real worry, as it suggests rising disinterest in Westminster politics, their central plank.
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Bye-election results ought to be used very rarely to make prognostications about future general elections. Turn-out is usually much lower than in a general election. Often there are circumstances peculiar to the constituency which dominate the debate, such as Ms Ferrier’s misguided actions over covid. voters often use the bye-election to give ruling parties a fright. Etc.
Often in the following general election seats which were lost by a party due to a huge swing against them in a bye-election usually return to the displaced party. Think of all these ‘LibDem BREAKTHROUGHS’, which turn to dust come GEs, when electors take a much broader view of the range of policies and the possibility of a change of government.
If we had a fairer system than FPTP, our politics would be different.
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