Scotland’s far superior cancer waiting times and BBC Scotland’s hoped-for but imagined ‘pandemic of cancer death’

First thing today, Reporting Scotland Down tell us:

The most recent data show record numbers of people waiting over two months to start treatment after an urgent suspicion of cancer.

They then use one Ayrshire woman with no explanation of how she came to be interviewed, to say:

…we are going to enter another pandemic, people to fight on with cancer because this has been left for too long..

As often with Reporting Scotland Down, no statistics because they don’t fit.

First, quickly on the ‘pandemic of cancer‘:

Over the 10-year period from 2012 to 2021:

  • The age-adjusted cancer mortality rate for all cancers combined decreased by 11%, with a greater decrease in males (14%) than in females (7%).
  • The overall risk of dying from cancer has decreased but the number of deaths due to cancer has increased. This largely reflects Scotland’s aging population, and the fact that cancer is more common among older people.
  • The continuing decrease in cancer mortality rates is consistent with long-term trends. Therefore, it appears that the pandemic did not adversely impact cancer mortality rates in 2021.

https://publichealthscotland.scot/publications/cancer-mortality/cancer-mortality-in-scotland-annual-update-to-2021/

Second, the statistics:

BBC Health today, based on the above data, is telling us:

NHS services across the whole UK have been struggling to meet cancer targets since well before Covid.https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-65764755

The differences are greater.

They have been careful to include NHS England’s improvement in March 2023, to 64% starting treatment within the target 64 days, from only 54.4% in December 2022, but have then compared that with the NHS Scotland figure for December 2022.

The correct, fair comparison would be 72% with 54.4%, a 16.6% gap and thus 30.5% better than the 54.4% figure.

Remember, that difference meant around 4 000 patients seen within target in Scotland and around 40 000 waiting beyond the target in England.

Third, Labour:

How can we do any better than the Tories? I have no idea.

In the period 1 October to 31 December 2022 (latest figures), under SNP government, 71.7% or 3 056 of the 4 262 eligible patients were seen within the 62-day standard.

In the same period in Wales, under Labour government, the figure was only 52.9%.

Had NHS Scotland been overseen by Labour in the last decade or so, only 2255 would have been seen within the target, 801 fewer!

Sources:

https://publichealthscotland.scot/publications/cancer-waiting-times/cancer-waiting-times-1-october-to-31-december-2022/

https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2023-02-23/nhs-waiting-times-improve-in-wales-but-situation-remains-volatile

Finally, and of course, never reported:

  • 6,757 eligible patients were referred within the 31-day standard, an increase of 4.7% from the previous quarter, and an increase of 5.8% from the quarter ending 31 December 2019.
  • 94.1% of patients started treatment within the 31-day standard, compared with 94.4% in the previous quarter, and 96.5% in the quarter ending 31 December 2019.

https://www.publichealthscotland.scot/publications/cancer-waiting-times/cancer-waiting-times-1-october-to-31-december-2022/

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