Are there good reasons for ‘Sturgeon’ government not wasting resources on mass testing?

Expect a gleeful media pile-on as another SNP target is apparently failed.

I wouldn’t go so far as to call this an opinion piece. I’m less certain than that by some way. Like Prof Pennington, I too am not a virologist, I’m getting on a bit and haven’t worked for some time but my contrarian nature just senses that the almost uniform support for mass testing, expressed by experts and mainstream media, might require some examination. So, sensing cracks under my feet, here we go.

These comments from Doyin Odubanjo, Executive Secretary, Nigerian Academy of Science, caught my eye at the end of March:

I would argue that we should not just follow the admonition of the WHO to “test, test, test” without examining it in the context of our local peculiarities. Testing is important but countries should adapt guidelines for testing that work for them, knowing also the dangers of having asymptomatic disease spreaders – that is those who have the virus but aren’t showing any symptoms. They should also consider reporting confirmed cases along with their clinical status as well as recoveries and discharges (all to encourage reporting of possible cases). The bigger worry is the fatalities and that is what countries must work to avoid. Lastly, lock downs must be considered – the socio-economic challenges weighed into it – as a means to minimise the spread in the face of limited facilities. This would allow those who might require hospital admissions to show up, while those who don’t will stop spreading the disease while they recover on their own.

https://theconversation.com/covid-19-to-test-or-not-to-test-134934

The part emboldened above seems to capture just what the Scottish Government has done with some success, judging by the trends in the number of cases, the number hospitalised and the number dying in hospitals. The number dying in care homes is not yet proven to be the result, only, of a lack of testing. Wider failures, perhaps inherent in profit-based care, are emerging.

With only 11 000 cases so far out of a population of 5 400 000, (0.2%) is it possible that the massive cost, in terms of resources and staffing, of trying to test enough of those to then control the whole population is just not possible and would weaken the other strategies?

Even if we could do it, might the exercise lead to a degree of unhelpful panic among those not yet tested, on the one hand and, on the other, dangerous over-confidence in those who have tested negative one day but who might, on the very next, become infected and begin to spread it themselves. Is this happening right now in Germany, lauded for its testing level, and now fearing a second wave as it tries to come out of lockdown, informed by its testing?

OK, I’ll stop there. Over to you.

8 thoughts on “Are there good reasons for ‘Sturgeon’ government not wasting resources on mass testing?”

  2. Availability issues with the test kits right from the beginning? Now commercial kits are to be used. Again availability issues particularly when the UK Gov does this:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/29/uk-turned-down-offer-of-10000-coronavirus-tests-a-day-four-weeks-ago

    Or buys 3.5 million antibody test kits that are subsequently found not to work but the UK Gov, the great negotiator, guaranteed payment whether they worked or not. They have been coy about how much they paid but reports in the NY Times suggests $20 million which actually seems a bit low

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  3. “The number dying in care homes is not yet proven to be the result, only, of a lack of testing. Wider failures, perhaps inherent in profit-based care, are emerging”.

    We hear almost nothing about the private Care Home owners. Why is this? I don’t know the numbers of private/local authority Homes in Scotland but the number of private Homes must be large. There seems to be almost no criticism of them in the MSM and that doesn’t seem right to me.

    Am I the only one to notice this?

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      1. There needs to be a monumental shift, in public and government interest, towards seriously investigating private care homes caring more about their profits than they do residents’ care.

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  4. Almost nightly on C4 news we have had regular reports from a care home in Erskine and their experiences of the covid 19 outbreak. Constant complaints from employees regarding lack of PPE and tearful staff recalling recent resident deaths makes up the bulk of these reports. There is never any examination as to why these private care companies are failing in their obligation to operate safe environments and why these companies expect the SG and charities to cover their backs for what is clearly a self inflicted mismanagement debacle. Even when asked why these deaths are occurring in their establishment, the management just shake their heads and offer no explanations.
    I am sure that the public will eventually start asking questions of these huge profitable corporations, its a pity that news media don’t seem do it themselves.

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  5. Whilst I think the SG have done a far better job in managing this crisis than Boris and his lacklustre lackies, they have made mistakes. To be fair Nicola has shown genuine sorrow over the situation in care homes and does seem to recognise the value of increased testing. However, failing to ramp up testing capacity and capability fast enough has been a major miss-step along with failing to recognise that care homes would be on the front line in the fight against COVID-19.
    In fauling to follow the WHO advice, we missed a huge opportunity to potentially reduce the spread earlier by testing not only those presenting at hospital but everyone with symptoms and contact tracing those testing positive. The 11,000 cases is a huge underestimate as it omits all those who had symptoms but recovered on their own as well as anyone who was asymptomatic (they would test positive for the virus but show no outword symptoms, spreading the virus as effectively as those with symptoms).
    So yes, countries like Germany and S.Korea who have led with testing are wary of a 2nd wave as the ease lockdowm, but we are foolish if we think we will not have similar issues or worse as we try to return to some semblance of normality. The difference is Germany and S.Korea et al have already established thorough testing regimes and contact tracing, so any outbreak can be stamped on quickly.
    Meanwhile, we (and rest of UK) are just getting to grips with this, without everything in place , as we look to release using old fashioned contact tracing methods and a potentially insecure app developed in a hurry by goverment agencies – what could possibly go wrong.

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