Now Andrew Marr lies about the death rate in Wales

I don’t need to remind readers of Andrew Marr’s selective use of unrepresentative data, in November 2020, to score a point over the Scottish First Minister, again.

Sneakily, he tried the same with the Welsh First Minister today, claiming that they had had more lockdowns than England and a higher death rate than the ‘overall UK rate.’

I smelled a rat when he jumped from English lockdowns to UK deaths and inserted a careful ‘overall.’

Here are the official figures:

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths

So, clearly, the death rate in England (197 per 100K) and the UK (189 per 100K) is higher than in Wales (174 per 100K).

What will his defence be. This:

The Deaths with Covid-19 ‘on the death certificate’, not ‘overall’, are higher for Wales than for the UK or England but these are not comparable due to different practice in recording deaths in the two countries.

GPs in England are clearly less likely to add Covid-19 to a death certificate than those in other parts of the UK.

The evidence could not be stronger in the much smaller gap between the deaths confirmed by a test and those where it was simply mentioned as one of the causes, in England, compared with a much bigger increase pro rata in the other nations.

This is sharp practice again by Marr and his team.

11 thoughts on “Now Andrew Marr lies about the death rate in Wales

      1. Bob Lamont
        And come to think of it a 3rd missing
        To insert between Devious and B**stard
        And that is Coital

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    1. I was wondering how to express my opinion without swearing. Thank you for doing it for me, I wholeheartedly agree.đŸ˜€

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  1. BBC lies, statistics and statistical lies.

    “Its the way we tell them”! Hahahaha!

    Who needs comedians when you have jokers like——–
    Hon Sarah and Andra’ Marr?

    Liked by 1 person

  2. THE HYPOCRISY OF ENGLISH SO CALLED JOURNALISTS
    and Marr
    Cannot be telling truth just making up facts into LIES

    AND THEY THINK THEY ARE AN HONEST AND TRUSTWORTHY

    Liked by 1 person

  3. The question a BBC (actually any) journalist SHOULD be asking is WHY the substantial differences in mortality rates between different parts of the UK. What follows repeats some of the facts given in John’s post and expands on them a little.

    Based on the UK government’s COVID-19 data, death within 28 days of positive test by area to date are (@ 28 March, 2021):

    England: 197.9 per 100,000 population
    NI: 111.4 per 100,000 population
    Scotland: 138.8 per 100,000 population
    Wales: 174.6 per 100,000 population

    English regional statistics for this measure range from 120.2 per 100,000 population (for SW England) up to 241.8 per 100,000 population (for NW England). Two points to note in addition: only the SW is lower than Scotland and only the SW and (just) London is lower that Wales.

    Also notable, the highest rate amongst the English regions is in the NW (241.8 per 100,000) and the third highest is in the NE (222.4 per 100,000). (These are of course the regions bordering Scotland.)

    Again from the UK government website, deaths with COVID-19 on the death certificate by area (@28 March, 2021)

    England: 225.1 per 100,000 population
    NI: 151.6 per 100,000 population
    Scotland: 179.7 per 100,000 population
    Wales: 244 per 100,000 population

    The difference between these two COVID mortality metrics for each of the UK nations is striking. As indicate in John’s post, this seems to point to different practices in recording COVID on death certificates where there is no prior diagnostic test. Talking the difference in the total numbers under each measure and then using this difference to calculate a percentage of the higher, certificate-based measure, we find that the difference is just 12% for England but 23% for Scotland, 27% for NI and 28% for Wales.

    In short, the death rate in England relative to the other three nations based on the death certificate data cannot – should not – be directly compared without qualification. Something notable is going on here to influence the statistics and cause the differences.

    As John in his post argues: “GPs in England are clearly less likely to add Covid-19 to a death certificate than those in other parts of the UK.” Anyone with a well evidenced, well referenced reason for how/why this is occurring?

    For further context, including perhaps for the NI data, in the Republic of Ireland the most recent government data reveals 4,653 COVID-19 deaths, including ‘probables and possibles’.

    Source: https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com

    With a resident population of c. 4.97 million, the death rate in Ireland using this measure is 93.6 deaths per 100,000 population.

    One year on and after multiple waves of infection, there is a host of relevant, comparable time series data available for the UK. There is documentary evidence of Westminster-enforced UK-wide actions plus evidence of different actions taken at different times in each of the four nations. And of course the four nations have distinct health and social care systems. However despite all this we have still not seen any of the major corporate media outlets or the BBC mount an objective, comprehensive analysis of how the pandemic has been handled across the UK in each of its four nations. And we still have no comparative analysis of relative outcomes.

    This continuing deficit in terms of comparative analysis is made all the more stark by repeated mis-representation in BBC programmes.

    Liked by 1 person

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