In a twitter poll with a self-selecting sample of the 5 465 who follow TuS plus unknown numbers who saw it shared, 75 times, 807 had taken part by 9.30 this morning with the following results:
I know this is not a structured, weighted sample and is thus lacking reliability but it’s somewhat better than any TV street vox pop survey. Until we get a proper poll, it is at least thought-provoking.
On the sample, the people who follow TuS are presumably largely Yes supporters but, judging by the comments I get, not all by any means, SNP loyalists who will vote SNP 1 and 2. I am an SNP member and regular and strong defender of its policies and performance in government. I also, regularly defend the First Minister, though I have in the past, questioned what seems to me a too-presidential manner and have formally complained, once, about her enthusiasm for the war criminal and fake-feminist Hilary Clinton.
In 2016, the SNP garnered 953 587 regional votes yet earned only four additional member seats, 3 in the South and 1 in Highland. With only just over half that number (524 222) the Tories got 24 and with only 150 426, the Greens got 6.
Our poll results suggest that the Alba Party might attract around 33% of the SNP vote or around 314 000 votes giving them around 12 seats. If they attract votes from the Greens or Labour, they might gain even more.
Readers will correct me where I have made errors or wrong assumptions