Snap poll suggests 59% will vote SNP 1 and 2 but Alba Party with 33% could take at least 12 additional member seats from Greens and Unionist parties

Alex Salmond has formed a new pro-independence party, Alba, to contest May’s Scottish Parliament election.

In a twitter poll with a self-selecting sample of the 5 465 who follow TuS plus unknown numbers who saw it shared, 75 times, 807 had taken part by 9.30 this morning with the following results:

I know this is not a structured, weighted sample and is thus lacking reliability but it’s somewhat better than any TV street vox pop survey. Until we get a proper poll, it is at least thought-provoking.

On the sample, the people who follow TuS are presumably largely Yes supporters but, judging by the comments I get, not all by any means, SNP loyalists who will vote SNP 1 and 2. I am an SNP member and regular and strong defender of its policies and performance in government. I also, regularly defend the First Minister, though I have in the past, questioned what seems to me a too-presidential manner and have formally complained, once, about her enthusiasm for the war criminal and fake-feminist Hilary Clinton.

In 2016, the SNP garnered 953 587 regional votes yet earned only four additional member seats, 3 in the South and 1 in Highland. With only just over half that number (524 222) the Tories got 24 and with only 150 426, the Greens got 6.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_Scotland#/media/File:Scottish_Parliament_election_map_2016.svg

Our poll results suggest that the Alba Party might attract around 33% of the SNP vote or around 314 000 votes giving them around 12 seats. If they attract votes from the Greens or Labour, they might gain even more.

Thoughts?

Readers will correct me where I have made errors or wrong assumptions

67 thoughts on “Snap poll suggests 59% will vote SNP 1 and 2 but Alba Party with 33% could take at least 12 additional member seats from Greens and Unionist parties

    1. Paul , yes it does because they are only standing candidates in LIST seats also known as regional seats as you rightly call them.
      The thing is the SNP got so few LIST seats for their million LIST votes it makes no sense to repeat this democratic swindle

      Liked by 1 person

    1. That is a genuine problem, though the Greens are their own party and dont always vote pro-SNP..
      It could be solved by the SNP and Greens entering a formal pact, and the SNP advising second votes in select seats to go to the Greens.
      Or…..the Greens and Alba could split list seats between them.

      The Brit Nat propagandists in the media are spitting mad right now—imagine their outrage if there were deals done between the SNP, Greens and Alba.

      John—you should stand for Alba–I would vote for you.

      Like

      1. I wonder….does Kenny MacAskill’s defection to ALBA give them a slot in debates/ airtime etc?
        Does anyone know? I seem to recall UKIP getting exposure on the back of David Coburn being an MEP.

        Like

    1. Alex,
      would you be in parliament and vote for something you think is wrong. Think about that. So probably you would not vote for it, if you are being true to yourself.
      So I doubt ALBA will just buckle to Nichola’s rather weird various new laws. The same with Independence, the whole idea, is I believe is to try their best to get Independence for Scotland. If the SNP have that ” Super Majority”, and do not act on it, they will be toast.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. “So I doubt ALBA will just buckle to Nichola’s rather weird various new laws”
        For those of us who support the rather weird various new laws. We know that they can be repealed.
        The important thing now is to get a majority for independence and a consistent approach to this goal.
        I fear that if alba get too many seats we will be mired in bargaining and lose sight of the objective.

        After independence the people can decide on how liberal we want to be.

        SNP and NS currently seem very popular with their weirdness.

        As for supermajority – it makes no difference to the argument. The only advantage would be to give alba leverage over SNP policies especially if SNP did not gain a majority. Supermajority is a con to get AS back into a position of influence possibly to further his vendetta against the FM rather than achieve independence.

        Like

  1. I am still mulling this over but the possibility of removing any long term list unionists from Holyrood has a strong attraction.Meanwhile I am certain Alex Salmond will have crunched the numbers and carefully calculated the odds.

    Liked by 3 people

      1. YES Alex like he did in the first referendum he was leading us to victory until the VOW a couple of days before the vote .
        The VOW was a lie but it worked and turned defeat for westminster into victory when BBC SKY all radio stations and all newspapers went full on with englands propaganda war on Scotland

        Liked by 8 people

  2. I am superficially attracted to the notion of gaining an independence supporting supermajority through tactical list voting. However, I have a question – what happens if say Alba takes the number of seats you suggest, then disagrees with SNP strategy re referendum for example. Would Alba vote against SNP? How would that play with the Unionists?Also what about domestic policies – where do Alba stand on these? A potential source of further conflict?

    Liked by 3 people

    1. What about the greens Ian Duncan , i know the greens in Scotland are a different party from the one in england& wales but in e&w they just voted for allowing people to change their gender without anything being required other than their own declaration , im okay with that bit but they also decided that they should be able to change their gender and their name on birth certificates and other documents without any legal interference and that for me is risky policy .
      There isnt much on scottish greens website about GRE other thsn that they are in favour ( so am i by the way ) but the addition of freedom to change name change birth cert etc is too much risk in my opinion and i do wonder if the scottish greens have the same policy because they do have a large support for lgbt

      Like

      1. The problem here is that the greens could be of a differing view to SNP in terms of GRE so the point raised by some about ALBA maybe wanting indy sooner than SNP is not the only area where agreement will have to be negotiated

        Negotiation is normal in a parliament is it not

        Like

      2. I agree with you Terence, personally I think it is shameful and putting women and children at risk. the whole thing needs binned.

        Like

  3. It’s a no brainier. SNP/ALBA. Covers all eventualities. Brings together all support. The unionists on the run. Independence in the bag. A dream team. D’Hond’t broken.

    Liked by 1 person

  4. These are interesting numbers and as you say unscientific. However I think that they ignore the possibility of a “double bounce” effect on the regional vote. If ALBA were to be predicted to take (say) 30% of the list vote, then even firm SNP2 voters will realise that the chances of the SNP winning list seats has fallen to zero, and may decide to vote ALBA on realising that.

    Like

      1. Not quite,Alex. A party, such as Alba, that only stands on the list can win a seat with less than 6% of the vote. The unionist parties hoover up list seats because they have no constituency seats. The SNP cannot win list seats in most regions because they win so many constituencies.

        Liked by 1 person

      2. Not true Alex.

        You trust the greens more thsn ALBA you say
        Have you read the scottish greens website
        Have you read the bright green.org website

        Worth doing so , some interesting information there
        Read it all

        Like

      3. Checked their sites. Still like them.
        Here’s a sample:
        When Alex Salmond decides to try to destroy his protégé because she refused to fiddle the complaints against him, the media love it as soap opera. But in truth, his new party is perhaps the ultimate example of toxic masculinity, a vehicle for a titanic ego, someone determined to undermine every institution and every person that tried to hold him to account.

        Like

    1. All well and good if the constituencies go heavily SNP, if they don’t then we could find the SNP losing out big time; no list safety net. The Greens will probably get squeezed, whatever happens & Alba’s numbers are unlikely to be this high in a properly weighted poll.

      I think we all need to calm down a little & leave the fantasy predictions alone until we have credible polling figures to chew on.

      Liked by 3 people

  5. The media will be (are) pushing the idea that it’s a terrible alliance of SNP and the terrible Salmond party. This is aimed at those who vote SNP but are soft on Independence, or even against Independence. The result may be that the SNP lose, or do not gain, constituency seats.

    Alba may nick a few regional seats from the Tories, or from the Greens – who knows?

    However, overall this could benefit the new, less radical, Scottish Labour.

    So, in my view, this is a big worry.

    Liked by 3 people

  6. 4 SNP LIST seats for a million votes is an abomination a democratic crime
    Thats what SNP got last time
    And yet it is what SNP say we should do again
    I just dont see why we should not allow other pro indy party,s into Holyrood
    The ALBA party is only competing for LIST seats
    The ALBA party are telling people to vote SNP for the constituency seat
    Thats good isnt it ? Surely it is
    All this new discussion is good too its progress
    We are bow talking about how we win
    Not if we win

    Liked by 3 people

    1. ‘You write: 4 SNP LIST seats for a million votes is an abomination a democratic crime’.

      Yes, it’s an eye-catching, thought- provoking figure but under the d’Hondt system and the regional lists, this national statistic you quote is irrelevant when an individual is assessing voting tactics for the upcoming election.

      It is the number of seats likely to be won by the SNP WITHIN each specific region on the FPTP element that matters. And note the term ‘likely’ – nothing can be guaranteed.

      However, it is VERY UNLIKELY – impossible (?) – that factors relevant to the making of tactical voting decisions for the List will be the same in every region.

      And candidly, it’s probably wise to see how the campaign proceeds and how polling results evolve before making any firm decision on tactical voting if that is something you will contemplate.

      Liked by 3 people

  7. From what i’ve read only the party of government i.e. SNP will be recognised by WM. So that’s why we must up the chances of list seats. The Greens are also standing in some constituencies. The Green vote could split the constituency vote and let in a unionist.
    I attended virtual meeting on voting in regional vote. Tony Grahame was the speaker and he made a convincing demonstration using the votes in both 2011 and 2016. He took us through every reiteration of the process for regions and demonstrated why giving the 2nd vote to another party caused the deficit of majority.

    Liked by 2 people

    1. Isabel, I don’t know who Tony Grahame is but let me assure you that voting SNP on both the constituency and the list is only effective where the SNP does not win big in the constituency vote. Only South Scotland region is likely to return SNP list MSP’s. If you are in that region you should vote SNP on the list if you are hoping for an SNP overall majority. However, in the rest of Scotland I would advise voting ALBA on the list to help ensure a pro-independence parliament.

      Like

      1. The unionist parties are going to work together to maximise tgeir chance of beating tge SNPon the Constituency.
        This is a real danger to SNP winning big in the Constituency.
        Therefore must vote SNP 1 & 2

        Liked by 1 person

  8. Alex stated on Ch 4 last night if his vote was in Govan then it would be cast for Nicola for the constituency and Alba for the list
    As for the poll to which John refers 33 % For Alba in the list vote, then such can but only increase from now on in
    ABC( BBC ) are now severely rattled as The Quisling Sarah Smith was doing her utmost to suggest that the SNP were now fatally split
    And wounded by Alba
    Well if they believe such they have badly miss judged the Indy movement and now have to
    Well and truly fight their propaganda war on 2 fronts now
    In military terms doing such invariably leads to a ignemonuis defeat
    After all when Hitler attacked the Soviets he opened up a 2 nd front despite doing so with the most powerful and successful military machine ever to war upon the planet
    And we all know how that ended up for him
    Tactically Alex is well aware of such tactical maneuvering and the Indy movement can now float like a butterfly but sting like a Bee
    When it comes to the shenanigans of the Hostile MSM propaganda war machine
    Alba can now take the gloves off and punch below the belt
    Make no mistake this is a fight to the death
    Free man stand or Free man fall
    And those who no stomach as the day of battle approaches Let them Turn and Flea
    For the Traitors Epitaph that awaits them

    Liked by 3 people

    1. AS also appears to have caught them out with Alba.

      They have to react and only have 6 weeks to try and inflict damage.

      Like the US were blindsided by the Tet offensive in 1968 so it seems the BritNats have been by Scotlands Bonny Fichter!

      Saor Alba gu bràth as they say!

      🙂

      Liked by 2 people

      1. Jockanese Wind Taker
        You 100 % correct Re. The Tet offensive which came within a hair,s breadth of N.Vietnamese
        Success
        But the genuis and master stroke was not at Da Nang
        It was all set up by General Giap ( who thumped the French colonialists and forced them to leave )
        Giap very cleverly tricked the Americans into
        Believing that 100,s of miles away that one of the American small bases at a remote hill called Khe San
        Was considered strategic and highly important to Giap, who launched a assault upon, which The US responded to by sending in reinforcements to which Giap tricked the Yanks even more and more by making them believe he was heavily reinforcing his troops
        To such a point that many key and elite forces of the US were redeployed from Da Nang to hold Khe San
        Whislt in fact Giap was cleverly diss engaging and redeploying to begin the Tet Offensive
        Although unsuccessful it in fact turned out to be a massive victory for Giap all because he had planted a massive seed of doubt in American minds that they could never ever possibly win the war
        This may be termed as A Hinge of Fate
        And from that day on America was in continual retreat
        And we all know how that ended with the ignemomious US withdrawal from Saigon
        Such a severe dent it was to US confidence it literally forced them from serious foreign adventures for over 25 yrs their confidence shattered as they licked the wounds
        Once more Alex Salmond,s move with Alba launch is rather Akin to Giap and his Khe San
        Ruse
        But this time the Tories now stand alone as Labour & Lib Dems desert the battle ( Da Nang)
        The Union is now devoid of key troops with which to defend the upcoming battle

        Liked by 1 person

  9. All the Unionist parties and the MSM are raging about this bringing up AS record on abuse they are s**t scared that maybe we now could get an overall majority for independence in the Parliament.Ross has no guts to stand for a constituency as he knows he would get shafted so I hope a strong person goes up against him.
    SNP 1&2 now I am torn will have to see who is standing.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Scot
      With regards Dross and his media response to the launch of Alba
      Then if i was his legal advisor i would strongly be advising him to chose his words with the utmost of care as of now
      Dross was last night sailing perilously close to
      The rocks with regards his choice of words regarding Alex and his fitness to hold office
      When he was implying Alex was a sex pest
      Just one little wag of one the forks of his drivelling tongue in the wrong way then Dross shall be fatally holed below the waterline
      So my dear fellow especially when in a Live media scenario
      Be Very Very Very careful as of Now

      Liked by 1 person

  10. Russian winter saw off Napoleon and Hitler. 26Million Russians died saving the West. Putin is one of the best leaders Russia has ever had. Reduced poverty and improving the economy. One of the world’s statesmen. Against war. Russian and China protect their borders but do not invade or spend $Billions on illegal redundant weaponry. They improve their economy and reduce poverty.

    US/UK illegal wars have ruined the world economy. Total hypocrites. Human rights. The illegal warmongers. They are killing people. Millions.

    1/2million British
    1/2Million French
    2million US.

    The EU established after WW2 to stop war abc starvation in Europe.
    Illegal wars and Brexit killing people. Ruining the world economy. The Westminster unionist imbeciles. Total greedy incompetences. Criminal and corrupt. To line their pockets with public monies.

    Liked by 2 people

  11. I will vote SNP in the main vote, but will definitly vote for Alba with my list vote, if it is available in my area. The Unionists creep through on the list votes and will get more in if the SNP do as well as we hope.

    But their 2 votes agenda is flawed, for the SNP to win big will allow more of these creeps in. Yet the SNP MUST know that is possible, so it makes another inexplicable decision to make.

    Alba, if they could collect as many list votes as possible, and in as many areas as possible, could seal a hole for many of the Unionists that creep through. I see that as a positive. Tthe do not seek any government posts, they wand to seal the gap, as best as they can.

    I do not undestand why the SNP would want to castigate that, if they truly want the Indy they talk plent of, but history shows previous mandates have never been acted on.
    Another Indy party, could push the SNP to start being more serious about Independence. So no bad thing to vote Alba on the list.

    Like

    1. The unionist parties are going to work together to maximise their chance of beating the SNP in the Constituency vote.
      This is a real danger to SNP winning big in the Constituency.
      Therefore must vote SNP 1 & 2

      Liked by 2 people

  12. I dont think Green voters will switch to Alba.
    I don’t think I can persuade the Conspiricites and Salmondites not to vote Alba.
    I don’t think I trust Alba MSPs to support the SNP majority in parliament.
    Given AS populariy ratings I don’t think a lot of SNP voters will switch to Alba.
    Just saying.

    Liked by 3 people

  13. In South of Scotland region there is no guarantee of winning all constituency seats. List seats as in the past for the SNP could well be very necessary here. It looks like a fight with Alba party inevitable here which can only help the unionist cause.
    Our local SNP branch very strong on both votes SNP. We understand the political realities here and the danger in gaming the system

    Liked by 3 people

  14. We really have to watch what we are doing here! Getting 33% backing Alba from people on an independence favouring blog is relatively easy, but when it comes to the overall SNP voting public, it will be much much harder. Beware all these promises of 12 or so list MSPs, I really think that is pie in the sky.
    Look at the polls nearer the time, if Alba is near to 6% of the regional vote in your area,then it may be good to vote Alba. If it is less than that voting Alba could hurt the Greens and the SNP. Be careful!

    Liked by 2 people

  15. Stuart Campbell is probably the best analyst of the Scottish political scene at the moment. LIke him or loath him.

    Read his latest blog post – it explains the situation in graphic detail. Follow his advice, we end up with a massive pro-Independence majority in Holyrood, but under an |SNP government.

    If the SNP tries to block the Alba Party, because their high heid yins don’t like Wee Eck, they risk doing as much damage to the cause of independence as they have already done with their woke policies and the likes of the Hate Bill.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Follow his advice, we end up with a massive pro-Independence majority in Holyrood, but under an |SNP government.

      Thats the problem – you can’t guarantee that folk will follow the advice. Campbell knows this. Campbell is a false flag.

      Liked by 1 person

  16. The Marmite nature of Alex Salmond is a drawback to many voters – his recent history has not helped .
    IF he is all about Independence then he should recuse himself from standing as a candidate . Yes , be the front man for Alba and help elect as many independent MSPs but no need for such a divisive figure to sit in Holyrood .

    Liked by 1 person

  17. I see the BBC News website is providing information on the workings of our electoral system: “Scottish Parliament election 2021: A really simple guide”

    Source: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-54825291

    It includes the following – and nothing else – on how the regional list system works: “In the regional ballot, people vote for a party. The parties are then allocated a number of MSPs depending on how many votes they receive, to make the overall result more proportional.”

    This is such a poor, incomplete and misleading explanation! It leaves out the absolutely crucial factor viz. that the more seats a party wins in the ‘first past the post’ constituency competitions, the less they are likely to collect seats in the regional list.

    Actually it’s worse that misleading, the BBC’s explanation that “The parties are then allocated a number of MSPs depending on how many votes they receive, ..” is wrong. The allocation of MSPs from the regional list is based on two factors not one – a region’s list votes for a party and the number of seats won under FPTP within the same region by that party.

    Why no simple illustrative example? The BBC is supposed to provide a public service after all!

    Liked by 3 people

    1. STEWARTB
      File a complaint with the electoral commission and most certainly not with the ABC (BBC )
      On the grounds that such info is not only misleading
      But may be considered mis reprentation of exactly how the voting system actually works
      And will indvertainly lead to voters casting their vote in entirely the wrong way of which they actually wished to do so
      Such in any democracy may be considered as
      Criminal behaviour

      Liked by 1 person

      1. Not sure whether the EC will act on this but the info has been sent with a request for review and advice on whether the matter falls within its remit.

        I had already submitted a complaint to the BBC – without expectation I have to say – but candidly I’m so practiced now it takes almost no time at all! And someone there will need to pay a little attention to the matter.

        Liked by 2 people

      2. STEWARTB

        Thanks
        I also will be registering a complaint to the electoral commission
        But bear in mind their remit although strong is quite limited but nothing tried nothing gained
        But as for ABC i give up, all you get in reply is a pretty bog standard reply tailored to the complaint that in short is just Coital Bovine Scatology
        BBC blatantly use their complaint procedures
        That one can only assume is Full Metal Jacket
        For Which the Bullets you fire at merely ricochet off
        Save our Ammo and fire at the correct target now
        The electoral commission must apply the rules by statute

        Liked by 1 person

    2. We have a leaflet from the electoral commission about the voting system for May 6th…never had taht nfo through the door before.
      Re the Alba party, if it puts gives the BritNats and EngGov the heeby jeebys, imo that’s a plus…need to look into all a bit closer though…I know at least one person who was totally loyal to the SNP is voting Alba on the list, SNP constituency.

      Like

    3. Because if they accurately explained the voting system for Holyrood the BritNat Party’s will get pumped!

      BritNat Broadcaster only frame narratives to benefit Westminster!

      Like

  18. I really don’t believe you just told people to split their vote…! that my friend is dangerous for Independence.

    Like

  19. The unionist parties are going to work together to maximise their chance of beating the SNP in the Constituency vote.
    This is a real danger to SNP winning big (or at all) in the Constituency.
    Therefore must vote SNP 1 & 2

    Liked by 1 person

  20. I wish people would look at this without the personalities, focusing instead on the big picture, the goal of independence and then do the maths.

    Even the BBC is aware that the voting population in Scotland is highly sophisticated. The only regions where SNP 1 & 2 makes any sense are South and Highland. In the rest, both votes yes means SNP 1 and ALBA 2. It really is that simple.

    But this only would guarantee a large representation of independence supporting members at Hollyrood. It WOULD NOT necessarily advance the constitutional cause. Conflict will still be inevitable with the British state.

    Even if every MSP supported independence, Westminster would still hold the pursestrings and exercise all the power. If ALBA works it is just another step along the way.

    Like

    1. ” Scotland is highly sophisticated. The only regions where SNP 1 & 2 makes any sense are South and Highland. In the rest, both votes yes means SNP 1 and ALBA 2. It really is that simple

      DRoss has contacted Rennie and Sarwar, they are going to work to put up a Unionist front.
      https://mobile.twitter.com/Political_AlanS/status/1375748521362612226

      There is no maths to be done. There is now NO region in Scotland where it is safe to not give both votes to the SNP.

      Liked by 2 people

      1. I noticed what Dross is up to. I don’t think the better together lot will get it together though. The political sophistication of unionists is perhaps not so well known as the rest of us. We’ll see.

        I agree that SNP 1 & 2 anywhere is looking increasingly stupid, just ever so slightly less so in South and Highland. Looks as if there might be a bit of momentum growing for ALBA … 🙂

        Like

  21. Bit early for a snap poll. The announcement has just been made. It might be better in a few weeks or so. May 6 the final outcome. Exciting. The unionists on the run. Independence getting closer. It’s the final countdown for the showdown. Shake them down,

    Like

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