80% of Independence supporters in poll DO think First Minister is serious

In a poll of mostly independence supporters, 80% have confirmed that they DO think ‘Sturgeon’ (sic) IS serious about independence planning.

Prompted by the suggestion that ‘No one thinks she’s serious’, Twitter followers of The Tusker were asked: ‘Do you think the First Minister’s independence plans are serious?

Of the 4 906 then following on Twitter, 2 020 responded and after 21 hours, 80.1% had selected ‘Yes‘ indicating that the notion was well wide of the mark.

Judging by the very rare occurrence of anti-independence comments seen in responses to 14 300 tweets over 6 years, it seem reasonable to suggest that the sample is made up of almost entirely independence supporters.

Many will be SNP members and supporters though it is impossible to estimate just what that percentage is. The tweets and the blog posts do sometimes receive comment critical of the SNP leadership.

Consequently, it seems reasonable to suggest that this is a representative sample of the voters which the Herald is referring to.

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4 thoughts on “80% of Independence supporters in poll DO think First Minister is serious

  1. Ah yes, I saw your Twitter poll (after I noticed you mentioned a mystery percentage with no explanation, I thought I’d check).

    It’s a very interesting result – for a few reasons – even though I know Twitter polls are a self-selecting sample etc, but if we stick to the actual Twitter stuff – because most of the comments on the tweet were negative, say about 20/22 were negative when I looked (I.e 80% in the opposite diection), it implies that that it’s very much a vocal minority that don’t believe she’s serious – or people answer different to what they say they are! I thought it wouldn’t be a large number of people that were sceptical.

    In this case it doesn’t matter if the sample are all pro-Indy, I think, but we can’t examine any of the stats when it’s a Twitter poll, so we have to have the usual caveats and a pinch of salt. Iain could always argue they were all Russian Bots, and your large number of votes (compared to a normal turn out) could actually imply that! As a rough guess, I thought it might be max 20% that were sceptical so I don’t think the results are wildly off.

    You could always commission a real poll??


    1. Find someone else doing one, go smarm up to them and beg to have a couple of Qs thrown in – obviously I didn’t ACTUALLY mean commission, it just sounded good with it being a big word and that’s the kind of thing those folks say.


  2. Of course she’s serious. For the first time since July 2014, things are looking better for Indy than for the Union. Hopefully unionists don’t think she is serious, back-peddle a bit, and Indy pulls away with the first real campaign since indyref1.

    Liked by 1 person

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