Putting Scotland’s latest infection rate rise in perspective


Four weeks after Scotland began to ease out of lock-down with pubs and restaurants re-opening indoors, we see the 7 day average for new infections up from 15 at around 50 with no immediate sign of a fall.

It is disappointing but it is also worth keeping in perspective.

Two other small countries, much praised, which had pushed the level down to zero for several weeks are now experiencing similar problems.

First, on Ireland in the Guardian yesterday:

Ireland reported 200 new Covid-19 cases arising from multiple clusters across the country on Saturday, the highest daily amount since the beginning of May. The country’s chief medical officer described this as “deeply concerning”. Ireland has reopened its economy at a slower pace than most European Union countries but that did not stop a rise in cases over the last two weeks that led to the first localised reimposition of some restrictions last week. “We now have multiple clusters with secondary spread of disease and rising numbers of cases in many parts of the country. This is deeply concerning. NPHET [Ireland’s public health team] will monitor this extremely closely over the coming days,” Ronan Glynn said in a statement.


Second on New Zealand, with no land borders but still a large international airport:

New Zealand reported seven new cases of coronavirus up to Saturday morning after a lockdown in Auckland was extended. Six of the seven new cases were linked to the cluster at the centre of all the previous community cases, said Ashley Bloomfield, the director-general of health. Up to Saturday, the authorities in New Zealand have reported 37 cases connected to the outbreak with 19 other people in quarantine.


Third, highlighting the greater challenge Scotland faces having a land border with areas of high infection, see this:

10 thoughts on “Putting Scotland’s latest infection rate rise in perspective

  1. And may i add some real perspective by bringing Norway into comparison whose performance from the very beginning far outstripped Scotland and mainly due to the fact that being Independent they were fast to bring in lock down
    Wheras Scotland was roped to England
    And Norway has far more fiscal resources at their disposal
    Only 3 weeks ago was Scotland beginning to match the capability of Norway
    But in the last 8 days Scottish performance is outstripping Norway
    Which clearly demonstrates that despite
    Fighting with 1 hand tied behind our backs and considerably less resources than Norway
    Which can only be attributable to
    1.we have a more effective leadership
    2.we have a more efficient track/trace/isolate system
    3.and with regards deaths for the period our health service appears to be more proficent
    So here are the figs.

    New cases from Sat.8/8 to Fri 14/8
    Norway 366
    Scotland 339

    New deaths
    Norway 5
    Scotland 0
    In anyones books this is remarkable
    And clearly demonstrates if we have the powers far less the resources Scotland are one of the Worlds top Nations

    Liked by 3 people

  2. Scotland could well see a spike once the English school holidays are over, especially now that fewer will be taking up their holidays abroad. Should people coming into Scotland from England, be quarantined looking at the numbers in parts of England right now?

    Liked by 2 people

  3. It is important to keep a sense of perspective in this and international comparisons are useful in this regard, not because we want to show, as some British Nationalists accuse, ourselves as ‘exceptional’ (they, of course, not being exceptional, because they are BRITISH) but to get a sense of perspective. During the course of this epidemic a huge amount has been learned by health and other people to enable people to manage things better. Test and trace is, in my view, demonstrating its effectiveness in identifying quickly and tracing the chain of infectivity.

    At the start of the lockdown, the strategy was to slow the rate of growth to prevent the health services being overwhelmed and that, to a large extent was achieved. It was about buying time – to cope, to learn, to work on a vaccine.

    It is clear that some places have managed more effectively than others and that this is, to a great extent due to political decisions and a sense of purpose, aimed specifically at the virus.


    1. ‘A sense of purpose, aimed specifically at the virus’.
      Makes no sense.

      The Scottish government’s aim and ‘purpose’ is not politically motivated, it is motivated by wanting to save lives, eradicate this damn Covid19 from our communities and our country.

      The bonus is to save our economy from utter catastrophe, sadly, that one is political and Scotland is at the mercy of the government in London, England, who have every intention of tightening their grip on Scotland’s huge resources and revenues.

      What Scotland could and would do with independence does not require explanation really, after what we have seen this past few months, (and including everything that has happened since England voted to drag us out of the EU!) it’s a no brainer as the saying goes.


      1. Apologies if I caused a misunderstanding.

        Decisions by politicians, whether they be in the Scottish Government, Westminster, New Zealand, USA, etc, are ‘political’, in my opinion, by definition. They will take advice from a number of experts, not just on the ‘science’, but on the perceived impact on different aspects of life such as the economy, public order, etc. They will have priorities and the purpose of the actions is to further these priorities.

        My view is that the SG priority is the elimination (not eradication) of the virus, whereas, I think that the priority of the Westminster Government is the economy and, particularly, the financial services aspect of it within the context of the kind of Brexit they seem to be aiming at.


  4. I drove past one of the local pubs in our notoriously blue-nosed town in West-Central Scotland, a pub reputedly owned by an ex-British Nationalist MP. I don’t know if the accepted ownership is an actual fact or only a rumour, but it attracts an obviously predominately Unionist clientele; cropped-haired, beer-bellied, tattooed men and youths wearing Rangers tops and Union Jack-bedecked tracksuits and t-shirts. A recent innovation is a beer garden, converted from an area that was previously the car park. This is visible from the road, and the behaviour of the customers I saw, several days after the pubs were first re-opened, had to be seen to be believed. It was absolutely appalling; no social distancing, guys hugging and kissing each other like-long lost brothers united after years of separation, wrestling with each other, arms round each other’s necks and shoulders, staggering drunk.
    Though not able to hear what was being said, I imagine it would be along the lines of “That Wee Nippy. Close our pubs. Dictating to us how to behave. We’ll show the wee bitch! I’ll drink bleach if I want to.”
    Not co-incidentally, the numbers of Covid-19 infections in the town is climbing alarmingly. I suspect the same yobbish behaviour is responsible for the outbreak in Aberdeen – another bastion of Yoonery and British Nationalism.
    What’s wrong with these people?


    1. Robert Innes
      You ask as to What, wrong with these people
      They are the jack booted soldiers of the Elite rich and powerful colonial masters
      Who believe they are members of the superior race

      Fully entitled to rule as they see fit without fear or consequence
      And have been reared and educated to do so
      As such by sleekit methods they divide and rule
      Carefully enrolling chaps of the right kind
      In positions of influence in the media etc.
      To cajole and egg on the ill informed and educated into a position whereby they feel that the protestant and British supremscy


      1. Contd
        Is in the direst of perils from the evil forces of Independents,Socialists,Papists,
        Feinans,Celtic hordes from the bogs
        And any others they can subtlety dream up
        Know thy Foe
        Especially when their position comes
        under serious threat
        Little to the thug foot soldiers realise
        Tis their masters that are the enemy and that independents are their true companions who upon Indy benefit them correctly so with the rights to celebrate the good within their history and culture as long as it is respectful and civilised with regards their fellow citizens as we take up the task of building a equitable caring responsible Nation taking its place in the World
        As a shining beacon as the only way forward for Humanity in these terrible times and worse to come if rapid action not taken against climate change
        If they refuse to join then cast them off to rot alongside their Masters
        For it is they that have no future


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