Ludo Thierry

Some encouraging Ipsos Mori numbers demonstrate the wider UK population is, increasingly, anticipating the ‘union’ not surviving in current form even into the medium term. Link and snippets below:

https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/public-confidence-future-union-much-lower-it-was-five-years-ago

New Ipsos MORI research shows that people in Britain have become less confident that the UK will continue to exist in its present form in the medium term.

Key findings:

• 72% of British adults think the UK will exist in its current form in one year’s time, a similar figure to when Ipsos MORI last asked this question in 2014.

• But people are split on whether the UK will exist in its current form in five years’ time, with 42% saying it will and 44% that it won’t. In 2014 the figures were 61% saying it will and 27% that it won’t.

• Half think it won’t exist in its current form in ten years’ time, with 50% saying this, up from 34% in 2014. And 51% think it won’t exist in its current form in twenty years’ time – up from 38% in 2014.

Emily Gray, Managing Director of Ipsos MORI Scotland, said: “While no one would expect public confidence in the Union’s future to be higher now than it was five years ago, what’s striking is just how much it’s dropped. These findings show that the British public are now much more divided in their expectations of the Union’s future than they were in 2014, when the Union’s future was under intense debate with Scotland just three months away from an independence referendum. With independence a key faultline in Scotland’s election debate, the findings will be concerning for those who want Scotland to remain in the Union, while those campaigning for an independent Scotland will hope that this is a continuing trend.”

The more the ‘man+woman in the street’ south of the border come to accept that the ‘union’ game is up – the more straightforward and clinical the Indy negotiations become. This more informed climate in advance of Treaty negotiations will be beneficial for the populations on either side of the border (‘harder’ or ‘softer’ border depending on negotiations/agreements in due course).