The last five polls on Scottish Independence suggest that it is now too close to call but within the latest there is interesting evidence on the young, the older and on women voters. More on this below but first the polls:
The Panelbase poll for the Sunday Times with 1003 Scots with fieldwork on 9-11 October puts support for independence at 50%.
This poll also has support for independence at 54% to 46% if the UK left the EU with no deal and 56% (DNs removed) thinking we’d be better off economically.
The YouGov/Times poll 30 August to 3 September put it at 49%.
The Lord Ashcroft poll on 30 July – 2 August 2019 put support for independence at 52%.
Two YouGov polls in April 2019 and on September 4th both put support at 49%.
I am, of course, ignoring the irregular question, Scotland in Chains, survey. The average of those five surveys is 49.6666% so, before any campaign, we’re even. What are the odds, we win a referendum? BoyleSports have cut the odds to 8/11.
Back to the electorate. Remember how we worried that women didn’t like Alex Salmond and would lose us the referendum in 2014? Well, in the Panelbase poll, SNP support is only 39% but it’s 51% among women aged 16-34! Among men of the same age, it’s only 42%. However, even more dramatically, support for independence in this group is way ahead of all the others at 71%, for women and 66% for men. In sharp contrast, women over 55 don’t seem to have been swayed by Nicola and, curiously, are the least likely to vote Yes (35%) and least likely to vote for the SNP (31%). Men over 55 are a bit more likely to vote Yes (41%) and for the SNP (34%) – paternalism?
Would a non-binary leader help?