Poll puts SNP at 52% pro-Indy parties at 55% and Labour at 8%

(c) Getty

Based on fieldwork on 9th and 10th September with 146 Scots adults (no 16/17-year-olds) and within a larger poll of 1 619 showing a Labour and Brexit increase over the previous poll on 5th and 6th:

  • Con                        19%
  • Lab                         8%
  • Lib                          11%
  • SNP                     52%
  • Brexit                    7%
  • Green                    3%

YouGov has been the most frequent pollster on Westminster with 20 since the beginning of June including this one. They have consistently, 15 out of 20 times, scored the SNP at 4% of the total poll and averaging 4.1%. This puts them slightly below Opinium at 4.33% but well above ComRes at 3.1%

The Labour score of 8% when they seem to be climbing nationally is disastrous.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/wnd2nr5s8f/TheTimes_190910_VI_Tracker_w.pdf

Published by johnrobertson834

Retired Professor of Media Politics Not-for-profit independent political analysis

13 thoughts on “Poll puts SNP at 52% pro-Indy parties at 55% and Labour at 8%

  1. Always worth reminding folk about the value of Scotland’s oil and gas industries (yes – all those oil wells which dried up decades ago).Some stats in link and snippets below from news.gov.scot from yesterday:

    https://news.gov.scot/news/oil-and-gas-production-increases-4-6-percent-in-2018

    Statistics announced today by Scotland’s Chief Statistician show that oil and gas production in Scotland, including
    Scottish adjacent waters, is estimated to have been 77.2 million tonnes of oil equivalent. This was an increase of 4.6% compared to 2017, and accounted for 82 per cent of total UK production.

    The approximate sales value of oil and gas produced in Scotland is estimated to be £24.8 billion in 2018. This has increased by 30.1% compared to 2017 due to the significant rise in oil and gas prices over the year. Operating expenditure, not including decommissioning, has increased to £6.0 billion. Capital expenditure in Scottish adjacent waters decreased to £5.3 billion.

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    1. And, you have not even considered renewables. Scotland and Scottish territorial waters are estimated to have 25% of the entire ‘renewables potential’ of the entire continent of Europe. Very rapidly, oil and gas will have to be left in the ground and there will be an increased demand for renewables. Already more than enough is being produced to provide for all of Scotland’s electricity needs, even with the rigged charges for the use of the National Grid, which results in a higher cost for electricity, produced by, say, tidal power in the Pentland Firth than that in London.

      This revenue stream is why England will hold on to Scotland for as long as is possible. We are ‘reverse subsidy junkies’ – we pour money in to the Treasury coffers and those of international oil and gas companies and then blame ourselves for being too wee and no very good. It seems to amount to self-loathing.

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      1. It’s not self loathing its drip drip propaganda of the British state. But look what we are up against. A biased media, our history taught pro union. Oh I despair.

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  2. May I suggest that you add one of the widgets at the bottom of your blog that facilitates tweeting a link to your blog articles? This is very helpful when people want to share it.

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  3. Your website is wonderful, you must put so much effort into this, you use the information you discover in a clever way too , I’m amazed how much you manage to do, I tell everyone I talk to about Scottish independence to read your website and I send them links

    Thanks for doing this you are a star

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  4. Despite this continuing decline, Mr Leonard has the arrogance to attach even more stringent conditions regarding a second independence referendum before he would deign to consider accepting one. Hubris or idiocy? It is certainly undemocratic.

    And, of course, the ‘ultra democratic’ Ms Swinson will not consider a second independence referendum under any circumstances and, in her interview with the unionist/akaEnglish Guardian, Scotland was not even mentioned .

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  5. The news had passed me by but apparently Treeza May has included Eastwood’s finest gammon a.k.a Jackson Carlaw MSP for a CBE in her p.m.’s ‘resignation’ (dis)honours list.

    Well, well, well, – Wee Col. Ruthie will be fair fuming – not a whiff of even a BEM for Ruthie but Jacko the gammon gets a posh gong for “..significant contribution to public life.” – Can’t actually fathom what that ‘significant contribution’ has been but I’m sure Ruthie D. could provide a few suggestions. – These tory types really like to parcel out the humiliation to each other don’t they? Interesting that wee Fluffers was equally ignored whilst Treeza’s largesse was heaped on Wacko Jacko – who knew that Treeza possessed such subtlety of approach?

    Link and snippets below:

    https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/politics/westminster/1838841/jackson-carlaw-handed-cbe-as-part-of-theresa-mays-resignation-honours-list/

    Scottish Tory interim leader Jackson Carlaw has been awarded a CBE as part of Theresa May’s resignation honours list.

    The former prime minister put Mr Carlaw forward for an honour alongside a number of individuals who “made a significant contribution to public life” during her political career.

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    1. Hi Ludo, I am sitting (luckily) with mouth agape at this news – Jackson Carlaw?? Significant Contribution? I would also be fascinated to find out exactly what that was – do the folk that dole out the awards ever check the details? But then,,, l suppose there is a very long list of the undeserving, which makes you realise how much of a sham the whole award system is, so maybe they are the deserving. But interesting choice, ignoring Ruth eh.

      Liked by 1 person

  6. Hi Contrary – good to hear from you – long time. (Have caught a couple of your comments across on the Tax Research blog so knew you were up and about and keeping out of trouble!).

    Yes – it is indeed that same Jackson Carlaw (Grand Master Gammon). My understanding is that the outgoing PM’s Honours List is very much a personal list (because May was appointing some tory peers Corbyn got to add 3 names and the English Greens 1 name to the list). There has been a lot of comment on the Resignation Lists over the years (Harold Wilson’s ‘Lilac List’ (including various names who ended up enjoying time at Her Majesty’s Pleasure!) and Cameron’s v. long list both provoked much tutting at the time.) It is certainly some kind of sharp barb directed at The Col and Fluffers that May ignored them and lavished a CBE on the unknown Carlaw. (Interestingly, she also ignored her PPS Andrew Bowie (West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine) who would typically received acknowledgement – wonder if his promotion to a Party Vice Chairman under Johnson has anything to do with that – a PPS is supposed to be a ‘private’ parliamentary secretary – so we draw our own conclusions I guess).

    Possibly the “..significant contribution to public life..” that May had in mind for Carlaw is his receipt of significant monies from the dodgy outfit known as the Scottish Unionist Association Trust (SUAT). Why a ‘dodgy outfit’ you ask? – Well even beeb Scotland is carrying news of today’s judgement by the Electoral Commission levying fines totalling £1,800 against SUAT for their repeated breaching of rules. See link and snippet from today’s The Ferret below (Didn’t take long for Jacko to tarnish his shiny new CBE bauble did it – won’t Queenie Pooh be pleased?):

    https://theferret.scot/suat-electoral-commission-decision/

    A “dark money” trust that gave £364,000 to the Scottish Conservatives has been fined £1,800 by the UK Electoral Commission for failing to properly report donations.

    The Scottish Unionist Association Trust (SUAT), an unincorporated association based in Glasgow, also failed to report two donations it had accepted in time, which totalled £207,350.

    The Electoral Commission reached the conclusion after a 14-month investigation prompted by a report in The Ferret highlighting inconsistencies in SUAT’s status in June 2018. The conclusion comes three days after we reported criticisms that the independent election watchdog was taking too long to investigate SUAT.

    The Electoral Commission said SUAT has “consistently failed to provide proper notification of its activities as an unincorporated association and as a members association”, leaving the public without “the transparency it was entitled to have of SUAT’s finances.”

    The trust gave £318,876.66 to the Scottish Tories between 9 April 2001 and 28 February 2018, as well as direct donations to acting leader, Jackson Carlaw MSP, the MPs David Duguid and Douglas Ross, and to the election campaigns of former Scotland Secretary, David Mundell MP.

    Since June 2018, when the Ferret first highlighted inconsistencies in SUAT’s status, the trust had donated a further £34,208 to the party.

    Former Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson last year told the BBC that “almost all” the party’s candidates would have benefitted from SUAT. An STV report found that SUAT donations accounted for a fifth of the party’s spending during the 2017 general election.

    SUAT gave conflicting information about the trust’s legal status and address which it has since been forced to clarify. One address, in Melrose, was revealed to be that of SUAT chairman, Robert Miller-Bakewell, a former Scottish Conservative executive member and current deputy chairman of the Scottish Borders Conservative and Unionist Association.

    HM Revenue and Customs later added Miller-Bakewell to its public register of “deliberate tax defaulters”.

    (Hats off to The Ferret for chasing down this info which otherwise would have remained hidden from public view).

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