Suicide rate in Scotland NOT highest in UK and is falling!

Sometimes I think, even with my modest understanding of statistics, responding to Scottish journalists’ efforts is like shooting fish in a barrel.

In the Scotsman yesterday we see the confident assertion that Scotland has the highest suicide rate in the UK. First, Northern Ireland has a notably higher rate than Scotland. It’s called ‘The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.’ Second, Scotland did have a higher suicide rate than England, in 2018, but the more important facts are that there is a notable downward trend here over a more meaningful period of time and the one-year change can be explained, whereas as the rate of change is static in England.

Here are the Scottish figures:

The one-year increase in 2018 is not, as any O-Grade, Standard Grade or National 4 mathematics pupil will tell you, evidence of a trend. It is probably related to the drugs epidemic triggered by Thatcherite economic policies in the 1980s. Much of the 2018 increase may well be attributable to the spike in drug-related deaths among older users, the Trainspotting Generation, who are now reaching the end of their shortened life expectancies together. This may go on for a year or two until this tragic group have all expired.

Also, the trend is downward. Using proper statistical methods to detect a trend, even if you include the 2018 spike in a set for 2015-2018, the average is 14.75 compared with 16.75 for the previous 4 years from 2011 to 2014.

Here are the data for Northern Ireland:

There is, here, clear evidence of an upward trend.

Here are the data for England:

The rate is clearly lower than in Scotland but is static and not improving.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/suicidesintheunitedkingdomreferencetables

Published by johnrobertson834

Retired Professor of Media Politics Not-for-profit independent political analysis

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

MacAlba

A Son of Scotland

Talking-up Scotland

Counter- propaganda and Citizen Journalism since 2014

SCOT goes POP!

Debunking British Nationalism Daily

michaelgreenwell.wordpress.com/

So long as men worship the Caesars and Napoleons, Caesars and Napoleons will duly arise and make them miserable. - Aldous Huxley

Bella Caledonia

Debunking British Nationalism Daily

Wings Over Scotland

sentiment without action is the ruin of the soul

openDemocracy RSS

Debunking British Nationalism Daily

caltonjock

Scottish and Uk Politics

%d bloggers like this: